Sisaket United vs Lamphun Warrior – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sisaket United vs Lamphun Warrior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 11 as Sisaket United welcome Lamphun Warrior to Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 December 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sisaket United stand at 2W 1D 2L from 5 Thai League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sisaket United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium, Sisaket United have gone 1W 1D 1L this season (3 games, 1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lamphun Warrior — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lamphun Warrior have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lamphun Warrior's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sisaket United 1.40 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Sisaket United in-play tendencies (5 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games.
Lamphun Warrior in-play tendencies (5 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sisaket United 60% and Lamphun Warrior 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sisaket United 40% | Lamphun Warrior 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sisaket United 1.00 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sisaket United attack 0.814 / defence 1.049 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.963 / defence 0.845. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.292. Data: 5 Sisaket United games / 35 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sisaket United 28% | Draw 30% | Lamphun Warrior 43%. Fair-value odds: Sisaket United 3.57 | Draw 3.33 | Lamphun Warrior 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lamphun Warrior as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sisaket United 67% | Lamphun Warrior 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sisaket United vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Dec 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sisaket United 28% | Draw 30% | Lamphun Warrior 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Sisaket United 1.00 / Lamphun Warrior 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Sisaket United attack 0.814 / def 1.049 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.963 / def 0.845 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Sisaket United xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Lamphun Warrior xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sisaket United vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Sisaket United vs Lamphun Warrior is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 on Saturday 5 December 2026 at Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium.
Where is Sisaket United vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium.
What competition is Sisaket United vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Sisaket United vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sisaket United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Sisaket United a 28% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sisaket United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Sisaket United and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Sisaket United vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sisaket United and Lamphun Warrior?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sisaket United and Lamphun Warrior in?
Sisaket United (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sisaket United's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Lamphun Warrior's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. The same calculation in reverse, Lamphun Warrior's attack versus Sisaket United's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
28%
3.62
30%
3.35
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Sisaket United xG
Total xG
2.31
1.31
Lamphun Warrior xG
3.62
28%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
7%
13.36
16%
6.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sisaket United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Sisaket United and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Sisaket United and 1.31 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Sisaket United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sisaket United's recent record stands at 2W 1D 2L from 5 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sisaket United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lamphun Warrior, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 3L across 5 games — 0.80 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sisaket United by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lamphun Warrior heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sisaket United have managed 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lamphun Warrior's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across 3 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 0.80 PPG overall record — Lamphun Warrior travel well.
The Goals Picture
Sisaket United are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 1.00 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sisaket United have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Lamphun Warrior in 60%.
Last 5 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sisaket United
Early Season
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sisaket United and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Sisaket United have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 games (1.40 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sisaket United at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Sisaket United's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sisaket United at home: 1.33 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 1.33 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sisaket United see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sisaket United at 67%, Lamphun Warrior at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Sisaket United and 33% for Lamphun Warrior.
On the defensive side: Lamphun Warrior in 33%; Sisaket United have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sisaket United home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sisaket United play Lamphun Warrior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Sisaket United's games and 67% of Lamphun Warrior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sisaket United vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Sisaket United's recent games and 33% of Lamphun Warrior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sisaket United and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Sisaket United have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.