Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Prachuap (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lamphun Warrior face Prachuap.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Prachuap travel to 700th Anniversary Stadium to take on Lamphun Warrior. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 December 2026, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamphun Warrior stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lamphun Warrior have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lamphun Warrior's home record at 700th Anniversary Stadium: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Prachuap have recorded 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Prachuap have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Prachuap have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Prachuap's 2.10 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Lamphun Warrior's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Lamphun Warrior, 3 for Prachuap and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.6 per contest from 8 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Lamphun Warrior in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Prachuap in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 66% versus Prachuap 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 46% | Prachuap 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.08 xG and Prachuap 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.824 / defence 1.291 | Prachuap attack 1.088 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.284. Data: 35 Lamphun Warrior games / 35 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 22% | Draw 24% | Prachuap 54%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 4.55 | Draw 4.17 | Prachuap 1.85. Prachuap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Prachuap at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Prachuap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 60% | Prachuap 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Dec 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 22% | Draw 24% | Prachuap 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.08 / Prachuap 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.824 / def 1.291 | Prachuap attack 1.088 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.517 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Prachuap xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Saturday 12 December 2026 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 22% chance of winning, Prachuap a 54% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap?
Record (8 meetings): Lamphun Warrior 1W | Draws 4 | Prachuap 3W.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Prachuap (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lamphun Warrior's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Prachuap's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Prachuap's attack versus Lamphun Warrior's defence, projects 1.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
22%
4.57
24%
4.10
54%
1.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
2.88
1.80
Prachuap xG
4.57
22%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
1.86
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
16%
6.08
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
4%
27.80
18%
5.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 10.1 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.80 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lamphun Warrior's recent record stands at 5W 18D 12L from 35 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Prachuap, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 8L across 35 games — 1.63 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Prachuap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Prachuap by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lamphun Warrior heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lamphun Warrior have managed 2W 10D 5L from 17 games — 0.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Prachuap's away record stands at 5W 6D 6L across 17 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.34 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamphun Warrior have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
Prachuap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 5W 18D 12L in their last 35 games (0.94 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 15W 12D 8L in their last 35 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Prachuap away?
Prachuap's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 0.94 PPG; Prachuap away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Lamphun Warrior or Prachuap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamphun Warrior have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Prachuap in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Lamphun Warrior's record when hosting Prachuap specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Lamphun Warrior
4
Draws
3
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap?
From 8 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, Prachuap have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 1-1 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamphun Warrior 71%, Prachuap 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Lamphun Warrior) and 53% (Prachuap).
On the defensive side: Prachuap in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Prachuap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 53% of Prachuap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Lamphun Warrior's recent games and 53% of Prachuap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.