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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chonburi FC vs Rasi Salai United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Rasi Salai United make the trip to IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium to face Chonburi FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 December 2026 at 11:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Chonburi FC have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Chonburi FC haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Chonburi FC at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.80 xG and Rasi Salai United 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.989 / defence 0.960 | Rasi Salai United attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.019. Data: 30 Chonburi FC games / 0 Rasi Salai United games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 59% | Draw 26% | Rasi Salai United 15%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 1.69 | Draw 3.85 | Rasi Salai United 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Chonburi FC (59%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Chonburi FC are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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