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Poisson model rates Uthai Thani at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Uthai Thani vs Sisaket United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 10 as Uthai Thani welcome Sisaket United to Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 27 November 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Uthai Thani stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Uthai Thani haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Uthai Thani's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Uthai Thani are significantly better at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 1.85 xG and Sisaket United 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 1.014 / defence 0.971 | Sisaket United attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.019. Data: 30 Uthai Thani games / 0 Sisaket United games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 59% | Draw 26% | Sisaket United 15%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 1.69 | Draw 3.85 | Sisaket United 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Uthai Thani (59%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Uthai Thani as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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