Lamphun Warrior vs Chonburi FC – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Chonburi FC at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lamphun Warrior vs Chonburi FC encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Lamphun Warrior and Chonburi FC meet at 700th Anniversary Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Friday 27 November 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Lamphun Warrior have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lamphun Warrior have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Lamphun Warrior's home record at 700th Anniversary Stadium: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Chonburi FC (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Chonburi FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

Across the last 6 meetings, Chonburi FC have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Lamphun Warrior's 1, with 1 draws in the mix.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jan 2026, ended 0–1 with Chonburi FC winning.

It is worth noting that Chonburi FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading

Lamphun Warrior half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

Chonburi FC half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lamphun Warrior 66% and Chonburi FC 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 46% | Chonburi FC 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.38 xG and Chonburi FC 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.824 / defence 1.291 | Chonburi FC attack 0.860 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.284. Data: 35 Lamphun Warrior games / 35 Chonburi FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 36% | Draw 27% | Chonburi FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Chonburi FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Chonburi FC at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 60% | Chonburi FC 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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