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Poisson model rates Rasi Salai United at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rasi Salai United vs Sisaket United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Rasi Salai United host Sisaket United at Sisaket Provincial Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 December 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rasi Salai United 1.55 xG and Sisaket United 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rasi Salai United attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Sisaket United attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.019. Data: 0 Rasi Salai United games / 0 Sisaket United games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Rasi Salai United 48% | Draw 30% | Sisaket United 22%. Fair-value odds: Rasi Salai United 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Sisaket United 4.55. Rasi Salai United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Rasi Salai United as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rasi Salai United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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