Ratchaburi 6-1 Rayong FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Ratchaburi (60%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Ratchaburi face Rayong FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Ratchaburi welcome Rayong FC to Dragon Solar Park in Thai League 1 (matchday 29). Kick-off is Sunday 3 May 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Ratchaburi have gone 5W 3D 2L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Ratchaburi's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Rayong FC stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Rayong FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Ratchaburi carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Ratchaburi's games and 80% of Rayong FC's (from Ratchaburi's last 10 home games and Rayong FC's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Ratchaburi: 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for Rayong FC, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 16 Dec 2025, ended Ratchaburi 4–2 Rayong FC — a Ratchaburi win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Ratchaburi and goals — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches and an average of 4.3 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Ratchaburi in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Rayong FC in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 48%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ratchaburi 60% and Rayong FC 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 59% | Rayong FC 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Ratchaburi surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while Rayong FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 48% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Rayong FC surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Ratchaburi recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 2.17 xG and Rayong FC 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.028 / defence 1.064 | Rayong FC attack 0.988 / defence 1.418. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.042. Rayong FC's defence rating of 1.418 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Ratchaburi's projected output up. Data: built from Ratchaburi's last 58 games and Rayong FC's last 58.
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 60% | Draw 23% | Rayong FC 17%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 1.66 | Draw 4.31 | Rayong FC 6.04. The model has a clear lean to Ratchaburi (60%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (2.17 / 1.09) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ratchaburi are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Ratchaburi's last 10 home games and Rayong FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ratchaburi 60% (last 10 home games) | Rayong FC 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 29 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 60% | Draw 23% | Rayong FC 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Ratchaburi 2.17 / Rayong FC 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 1.028 / def 1.064 | Rayong FC attack 0.988 / def 1.418 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.042 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Rayong FC xG
61%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC FAQs
What time does Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 3 May 2026 at Dragon Solar Park.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC?
Ratchaburi 6 - 1 Rayong FC.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC part of?
Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 29) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 60% chance of winning, Rayong FC a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Ratchaburi and Rayong FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ratchaburi's attack rating (1.03) and Rayong FC's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 2.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rayong FC's attack versus Ratchaburi's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ratchaburi's last 58 games and Rayong FC's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
60%
1.66
23%
4.31
17%
6.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
3.27
1.09
Rayong FC xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
6.04
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
11%
8.78
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
2%
53.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Rayong FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 1.09 for Rayong FC, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 58 outings, Ratchaburi have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 31W 12D 15L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Rayong FC's form line: 17W 17D 24L from 58 games, 1.17 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W.
Put side by side, Ratchaburi are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Rayong FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ratchaburi have posted 1.93 PPG from their last 29 home games (16W 8D 5L).
On the road, Rayong FC have gone 5W 7D 17L from their last 29 away games — 0.76 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rayong FC's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Rayong FC are on 1.43 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ratchaburi have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Rayong FC in 72%.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Current Season
Rayong FC
Current Season
Ratchaburi (Home) vs Rayong FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ratchaburi
Current Season
Rayong FC
Current Season
❓ Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC Form FAQs
What form are Ratchaburi and Rayong FC in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 31W 12D 15L in their last 58 games (1.81 PPG), while Rayong FC have gone 17W 17D 24L in their last 58 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Rayong FC away?
Ratchaburi's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.93 PPG; Rayong FC away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2024. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 May 2026, when Ratchaburi won Ratchaburi 6-1 Rayong FC.
Ratchaburi's record when hosting Rayong FC specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Ratchaburi
1
Draws
0
Rayong FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Rayong FC?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Ratchaburi have won 4, Rayong FC have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Rayong FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Rayong FC 1-1 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Rayong FC?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 55%, Rayong FC 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Ratchaburi) and 62% (Rayong FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Rayong FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ratchaburi and Rayong FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Ratchaburi's games and 69% of Rayong FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Ratchaburi and Rayong FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Ratchaburi's matches and 62% of Rayong FC's.
Do Ratchaburi and Rayong FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 93% of Ratchaburi's recent matches and 79% of Rayong FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ratchaburi run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Rayong FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Rayong FC 6-1 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 29, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 2.17 xG and Rayong FC 1.09 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Ratchaburi beat their projection by 3.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 1.03 / defence 1.06 against Rayong FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.42, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 60% | Draw 23% | Rayong FC 17%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 59%, Rayong FC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Rayong FC's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm. Rayong FC (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 2.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.