Ayutthaya FC vs Buriram United – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Buriram United at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ayutthaya FC vs Buriram United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 12 as Ayutthaya FC welcome Buriram United to Ayutthaya Province Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 December 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ayutthaya FC have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ayutthaya FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ayutthaya FC's home record at Ayutthaya Province Stadium: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Ayutthaya Province Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Buriram United stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Buriram United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Buriram United's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ayutthaya FC at 1.30 PPG versus Buriram United's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Ayutthaya FC have won 0, Buriram United 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 0–2 with Buriram United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ayutthaya FC in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Buriram United in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ayutthaya FC 58% versus Buriram United 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ayutthaya FC 47% | Buriram United 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ayutthaya FC 0.95 xG and Buriram United 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ayutthaya FC attack 0.860 / defence 1.058 | Buriram United attack 1.027 / defence 0.767. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.456. Buriram United's defence strength of 0.767 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 37 Ayutthaya FC games / 36 Buriram United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 22% | Draw 27% | Buriram United 51%. Fair-value odds: Ayutthaya FC 4.55 | Draw 3.70 | Buriram United 1.96. Buriram United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Buriram United as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Buriram United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ayutthaya FC 40% | Buriram United 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ayutthaya FC vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Ayutthaya Province Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Dec 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 22% | Draw 27% | Buriram United 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Ayutthaya FC 0.95 / Buriram United 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Ayutthaya FC attack 0.860 / def 1.058 | Buriram United attack 1.027 / def 0.767 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.456 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Ayutthaya FC xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Buriram United xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ayutthaya FC vs Buriram United kick off?
Ayutthaya FC vs Buriram United is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Saturday 12 December 2026 at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
Where is Ayutthaya FC vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
What competition is Ayutthaya FC vs Buriram United part of?
Ayutthaya FC vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ayutthaya FC vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Ayutthaya FC a 22% chance of winning, Buriram United a 51% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ayutthaya FC vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Ayutthaya FC and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will Ayutthaya FC vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ayutthaya FC and Buriram United?
Record (2 meetings): Ayutthaya FC 0W | Draws 0 | Buriram United 2W.
What form are Ayutthaya FC and Buriram United in?
Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Buriram United (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ayutthaya FC's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Buriram United's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. The same calculation in reverse, Buriram United's attack versus Ayutthaya FC's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.0%), 0-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
22%
4.59
27%
3.69
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Ayutthaya FC xG
Total xG
2.54
1.58
Buriram United xG
4.59
22%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
21%
4.86
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
4%
22.34
20%
5.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 12.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ayutthaya FC vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Ayutthaya FC and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Ayutthaya FC and 1.58 for Buriram United, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Ayutthaya FC vs Buriram United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, Ayutthaya FC have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 12W 9D 15L record — L-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Buriram United's form line: 26W 5D 5L from 36 games, 2.31 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Buriram United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Buriram United are the form team by 1.06 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ayutthaya FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ayutthaya FC have posted 0.72 PPG from 18 outings (3W 4D 11L). That actually lags their 1.25 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Buriram United have gone 13W 2D 3L from 18 away games — 2.28 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ayutthaya FC are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 2.42 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Buriram United in 61%.
Last 36 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ayutthaya FC
Early Season
Buriram United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ayutthaya FC and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Ayutthaya FC have gone 12W 9D 15L in their last 36 games (1.25 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 26W 5D 5L in their last 36 (2.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ayutthaya FC at home or Buriram United away?
Buriram United's away record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ayutthaya FC at home: 0.72 PPG; Buriram United away: 2.28 PPG.
Have Ayutthaya FC or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ayutthaya FC have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Buriram United in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ayutthaya FC and Buriram United runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ayutthaya FC
0
Draws
2
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ayutthaya FC and Buriram United?
From 2 meetings on record, Ayutthaya FC have won 0, Buriram United have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ayutthaya FC and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Buriram United 2-0 Ayutthaya FC.
Who has won more matches between Ayutthaya FC and Buriram United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ayutthaya FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ayutthaya FC 67%, Buriram United 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Ayutthaya FC and 72% for Buriram United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Buriram United in 33%; Ayutthaya FC have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ayutthaya FC home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ayutthaya FC play Buriram United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Ayutthaya FC's games and 61% of Buriram United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ayutthaya FC vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Ayutthaya FC's matches and 72% of Buriram United's.
Do Ayutthaya FC and Buriram United tend to score early?
Ayutthaya FC have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.