Ayutthaya FC vs Buriram United – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ayutthaya FC at 38%, yet in-form Buriram United provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ayutthaya FC vs Buriram United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 12 as Ayutthaya FC welcome Buriram United to Ayutthaya Province Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 December 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ayutthaya FC have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Ayutthaya FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ayutthaya FC's home record at Ayutthaya Province Stadium: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Buriram United stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Buriram United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Buriram United's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Buriram United — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Ayutthaya FC have won 0, Buriram United 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 0–2 with Buriram United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ayutthaya FC in-play tendencies (31 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Buriram United in-play tendencies (31 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ayutthaya FC 61% and Buriram United 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ayutthaya FC 48% | Buriram United 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ayutthaya FC 1.34 xG and Buriram United 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ayutthaya FC attack 0.917 / defence 1.193 | Buriram United attack 1.159 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 0.918. Data: 30 Ayutthaya FC games / 30 Buriram United games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 38% | Draw 28% | Buriram United 34%. Fair-value odds: Ayutthaya FC 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Buriram United 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ayutthaya FC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Buriram United (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ayutthaya FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ayutthaya FC 50% | Buriram United 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ayutthaya FC vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Ayutthaya Province Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Dec 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 38% | Draw 28% | Buriram United 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Ayutthaya FC 1.34 / Buriram United 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Ayutthaya FC attack 0.917 / def 1.193 | Buriram United attack 1.159 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.438 / away 0.918 • Poisson stance: Ayutthaya FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Ayutthaya FC xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Buriram United xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ayutthaya FC vs Buriram United kick off?
Ayutthaya FC vs Buriram United is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Saturday 12 December 2026 at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
Where is Ayutthaya FC vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
What competition is Ayutthaya FC vs Buriram United part of?
Ayutthaya FC vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ayutthaya FC vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Ayutthaya FC a 38% chance of winning, Buriram United a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ayutthaya FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ayutthaya FC vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Ayutthaya FC and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will Ayutthaya FC vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ayutthaya FC and Buriram United?
Record (2 meetings): Ayutthaya FC 0W | Draws 0 | Buriram United 2W.
What form are Ayutthaya FC and Buriram United in?
Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Buriram United (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ayutthaya FC's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Buriram United's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Buriram United's attack versus Ayutthaya FC's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ayutthaya FC Win
38%
2.65
28%
3.58
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Ayutthaya FC xG
Total xG
2.61
1.27
Buriram United xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
11%
9.43
9%
11.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.5 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ayutthaya FC vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Ayutthaya FC and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Ayutthaya FC and 1.27 for Buriram United, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Ayutthaya FC vs Buriram United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 31 outings, Ayutthaya FC have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 9W 8D 14L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Buriram United's form line: 23W 4D 4L from 31 games, 2.35 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Buriram United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Buriram United are the form team by 1.22 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ayutthaya FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ayutthaya FC have posted 0.81 PPG from 16 outings (3W 4D 9L).
On the road, Buriram United have gone 11W 2D 3L from 16 away games — 2.19 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ayutthaya FC are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 2.55 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ayutthaya FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Buriram United in 61%.
Last 31 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ayutthaya FC
Early Season
Buriram United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ayutthaya FC and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Ayutthaya FC have gone 9W 8D 14L in their last 31 games (1.13 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 23W 4D 4L in their last 31 (2.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ayutthaya FC at home or Buriram United away?
Buriram United's away record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ayutthaya FC at home: 0.81 PPG; Buriram United away: 2.19 PPG.
Have Ayutthaya FC or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ayutthaya FC have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Buriram United in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ayutthaya FC and Buriram United runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ayutthaya FC
0
Draws
2
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ayutthaya FC and Buriram United?
From 2 meetings on record, Ayutthaya FC have won 0, Buriram United have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ayutthaya FC and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Buriram United 2-0 Ayutthaya FC.
Who has won more matches between Ayutthaya FC and Buriram United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ayutthaya FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ayutthaya FC at 69%, Buriram United at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Ayutthaya FC and 81% for Buriram United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ayutthaya FC home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ayutthaya FC play Buriram United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Ayutthaya FC's games and 69% of Buriram United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ayutthaya FC vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Ayutthaya FC's matches and 81% of Buriram United's.
Do Ayutthaya FC and Buriram United tend to score early?
Ayutthaya FC have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.