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Poisson model rates Sisaket United at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sisaket United vs Sukhothai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium plays host to Sisaket United versus Sukhothai FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Saturday 19 December 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Sukhothai FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sukhothai FC haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Sukhothai FC's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sisaket United 1.48 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sisaket United attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.816 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.019. Data: 0 Sisaket United games / 30 Sukhothai FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Sisaket United 47% | Draw 30% | Sukhothai FC 22%. Fair-value odds: Sisaket United 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Sukhothai FC 4.55. Sisaket United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Sisaket United as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sisaket United if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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