Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-2 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 42%, yet in-form Prachuap provide a compelling counter-argument — this Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Prachuap make the trip to 80th Birthday Stadium to face Nakhon Ratchasima FC in Thai League 1 (matchday 23). The match kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 11:30 UK time.
Form
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all games): 2W 0D 8L across their last 10 — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Prachuap's record over their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Prachuap's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Prachuap arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, 3 for Prachuap and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.9 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2025, ended Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0–2 Prachuap — a Prachuap win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.9 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Nakhon Ratchasima FC — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Prachuap — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 54% versus Prachuap 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50% | Prachuap 44%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Nakhon Ratchasima FC surrender their half-time lead 46% of the time, while Prachuap have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.20 xG and Prachuap 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.822 / defence 0.941 | Prachuap attack 0.809 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.524 / away 1.153. Data: built from Nakhon Ratchasima FC's last 50 games and Prachuap's last 51.
Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 42% | Draw 33% | Prachuap 25%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2.40 | Draw 3.02 | Prachuap 3.96. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Prachuap (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nakhon Ratchasima FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Nakhon Ratchasima FC's last 10 home games and Prachuap's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 30% (last 10 home games) | Prachuap 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 23 | Venue: 80th Birthday Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 March 2026 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 42% | Draw 33% | Prachuap 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.20 / Prachuap 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.822 / def 0.941 | Prachuap attack 0.809 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.524 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Nakhon Ratchasima FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Prachuap xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap FAQs
What time does Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap kick off?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 80th Birthday Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1 - 2 Prachuap.
Where is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at 80th Birthday Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap part of?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 23) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 42% chance of winning, Prachuap a 25% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Nakhon Ratchasima FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Prachuap's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Prachuap's attack (0.81x) against Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from Nakhon Ratchasima FC's last 50 games and Prachuap's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nakhon Ratchasima FC Win
42%
2.40
33%
3.02
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Total xG
2.08
0.88
Prachuap xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
17%
5.77
8%
13.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 11.0 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.2 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 0.88 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nakhon Ratchasima FC come into this having played 50 games, going 10W 15D 25L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Prachuap sit at 1.44 PPG from 50 outings (18W 18D 14L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-W across their last five.
Prachuap carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Nakhon Ratchasima FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home form reads 7W 8D 9L across their last 24 home games, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Prachuap have taken 0.88 points per game from their last 24 away games (4W 9D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Prachuap's recent record.
Attack vs Defence
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.50 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Prachuap in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
Prachuap
Blended
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (Home) vs Prachuap (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
Prachuap
Blended
❓ Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap Form FAQs
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 10W 15D 25L in their last 50 games (0.90 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 18W 18D 14L in their last 50 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home or Prachuap away?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home: 1.21 PPG; Prachuap away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Nakhon Ratchasima FC or Prachuap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Prachuap in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap, the earliest from October 2021. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was on 1 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Prachuap have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 0W 1D 3L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Prachuap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
2
Draws
4
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 2, Prachuap have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 March 2026: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-2 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 62%, Prachuap 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC) and 38% (Prachuap).
On the defensive side: Nakhon Ratchasima FC have failed to score in 29% of games; Prachuap in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Ratchasima FC home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's games and 54% of Prachuap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent games and 38% of Prachuap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent matches and 75% of Prachuap's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Prachuap defy the odds to beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Prachuap beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-2 at 80th Birthday Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.20 xG and Prachuap 0.88 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Prachuap outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.82 / defence 0.94 against Prachuap attack 0.81 / defence 0.96, drawn from 50/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 42% | Draw 33% | Prachuap 25%, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Prachuap win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%, Prachuap 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Prachuap's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Prachuap arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Prachuap (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.