Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-3 Buriram United – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Buriram United (53%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Nakhon Ratchasima FC face Buriram United.

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Fixture Analysis

Nakhon Ratchasima FC welcome Buriram United to 80th Birthday Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 24). Kick-off is Saturday 7 March 2026 at 12:30 UK time.

Form Guide

Nakhon Ratchasima FC — last 10 games: 2W 0D 8L, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

At home, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Buriram United stand at 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Buriram United away from home: 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 away games — 2.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Buriram United — 1.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

Buriram United have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 7 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.7 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 1 Nov 2025, ended Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1–2 Buriram United — a Buriram United win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Buriram United have won 7 of 7 H2H matches, and at 3.7 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading Patterns

Nakhon Ratchasima FC in-play and half-time data (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

Buriram United in-play and half-time data (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 55% versus Buriram United 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 51% | Buriram United 69%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Nakhon Ratchasima FC surrender their half-time lead 46% of the time, while Buriram United have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 44% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.98 xG and Buriram United 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.812 / defence 1.041 | Buriram United attack 1.426 / defence 0.800. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.152. Buriram United have an above-average attack rating of 1.426, which lifts their away xG to 1.71. Data: built from Nakhon Ratchasima FC's last 51 games and Buriram United's last 51.

Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 20% | Draw 28% | Buriram United 53%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 5.11 | Draw 3.60 | Buriram United 1.90. Buriram United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Buriram United as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Buriram United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 30% (last 10 home games) | Buriram United 70% (last 10 away games).

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