Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-0 Bangkok United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bangkok United (41%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Nakhon Ratchasima FC face Bangkok United.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Bangkok United travel to 80th Birthday Stadium to take on Nakhon Ratchasima FC in Thai League 1 (matchday 21). The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Nakhon Ratchasima FC stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bangkok United — last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Bangkok United have gone 4W 5D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 8 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (80%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bangkok United are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Nakhon Ratchasima FC's 30% BTTS rate and Bangkok United's 20% (from Nakhon Ratchasima FC's last 10 home games and Bangkok United's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
Despite the home advantage, Bangkok United have the better record in our head-to-head data — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches against 0 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.1 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 5 Oct 2025, ended Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1–3 Bangkok United — a Bangkok United win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Bangkok United have won 5 of 7 H2H matches, and at 3.1 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Nakhon Ratchasima FC in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Bangkok United in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 83%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 52% versus Bangkok United 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 48% | Bangkok United 54%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Nakhon Ratchasima FC surrender their half-time lead 46% of the time, while Bangkok United have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 83% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.62 xG and Bangkok United 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.672 / defence 1.029 | Bangkok United attack 0.887 / defence 0.630. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.094. Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack rating of 0.672 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.62. Bangkok United bring a tight defence (rating 0.630, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Nakhon Ratchasima FC's projected output down. Data: built from Nakhon Ratchasima FC's last 55 games and Bangkok United's last 54.
Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 19% | Draw 40% | Bangkok United 41%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 5.14 | Draw 2.52 | Bangkok United 2.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 40% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS Yes probability 32% | Total xG 1.62. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.62 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Nakhon Ratchasima FC's lower xG of 0.62 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bangkok United are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 40% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bangkok United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 78% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Nakhon Ratchasima FC's last 10 home games and Bangkok United's last 10 away games) averaging 1.5 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 68%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 30% (last 10 home games) | Bangkok United 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Bangkok United | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 21 | Venue: 80th Birthday Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 19% | Draw 40% | Bangkok United 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% (Under 78%) | BTTS Yes 32% (No 68%) | xG Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.62 / Bangkok United 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.672 / def 1.029 | Bangkok United attack 0.887 / def 0.630 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: Bangkok United (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.62
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Bangkok United xG
32%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Bangkok United FAQs
What time does Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Bangkok United kick off?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Bangkok United kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 80th Birthday Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Bangkok United?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1 - 0 Bangkok United.
Where is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Bangkok United being played?
The match is being played at 80th Birthday Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Bangkok United part of?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Bangkok United is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 21) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Bangkok United?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 19% chance of winning, Bangkok United a 41% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw — making Bangkok United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Bangkok United?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Bangkok United will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (68%).
Will Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Bangkok United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (78%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack rating (0.67) and Bangkok United's defence rating (0.63), the model arrives at 0.62 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bangkok United's attack versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Nakhon Ratchasima FC's last 55 games and Bangkok United's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 21.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (18.2%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bangkok United Win
19%
5.14
40%
2.52
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
19.8%
Away win
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.62
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Total xG
1.62
1.00
Bangkok United xG
5.14
19%
Home win
2.52
40%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.12
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
54%
1.86
Win to Nil
7%
13.97
22%
4.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.8 | 19.8 | 9.9 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Bangkok United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Bangkok United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.4%.
How many goals are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Bangkok United expected to score?
The model projects 0.62 expected goals for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 1.00 for Bangkok United, a combined total of 1.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Bangkok United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have picked up 0.87 PPG on a 10W 17D 27L record — L-L-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Bangkok United's form line: 33W 15D 6L from 54 games, 2.11 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-W.
Put side by side, Bangkok United are the form team by 1.24 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have posted 1.04 PPG from their last 26 home games (6W 9D 11L).
On the road, Bangkok United have gone 14W 8D 4L from their last 26 away games — 1.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bangkok United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Bangkok United are on 1.83 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Bangkok United in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
Bangkok United
Blended
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (Home) vs Bangkok United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
Bangkok United
Blended
❓ Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Bangkok United Form FAQs
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Bangkok United in coming into this match?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 10W 17D 27L in their last 54 games (0.87 PPG), while Bangkok United have gone 33W 15D 6L in their last 54 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home or Bangkok United away?
Bangkok United's away record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home: 1.04 PPG; Bangkok United away: 1.92 PPG.
Have Nakhon Ratchasima FC or Bangkok United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Bangkok United in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was on 11 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 Feb 2023, when Bangkok United won Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-4 Bangkok United.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's record when hosting Bangkok United specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
2
Draws
5
Bangkok United
Recent Meetings
❓ Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Bangkok United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Bangkok United?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 1, Bangkok United have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Bangkok United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 April 2026: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-0 Bangkok United.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Bangkok United?
Bangkok United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nakhon Ratchasima FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Bangkok United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 58%, Bangkok United 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC) and 46% (Bangkok United).
On the defensive side: Bangkok United in 50%; Nakhon Ratchasima FC have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Ratchasima FC home games / Bangkok United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Bangkok United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Bangkok United matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent matches and 46% of Bangkok United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Bangkok United matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent games and 46% of Bangkok United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Bangkok United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent matches and 62% of Bangkok United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nakhon Ratchasima FC defy the odds to beat Bangkok United 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat Bangkok United 1-0 at 80th Birthday Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.62 xG and Bangkok United 1.00 xG, a combined 1.62. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bangkok United landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.67 / defence 1.03 against Bangkok United attack 0.89 / defence 0.63, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 19% | Draw 40% | Bangkok United 41%, with Bangkok United to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a Nakhon Ratchasima FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 51% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 48%, Bangkok United 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Bangkok United's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 0.87. Form was overturned, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Bangkok United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.