Muangthong United 1-1 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Lamphun Warrior at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Muangthong United vs Lamphun Warrior encounter.

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Analysis

Lamphun Warrior make the trip to Thunderdome Stadium to face Muangthong United in Thai League 1 (matchday 21). The match kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 11:00 UK time.

Form

Muangthong United (all games): 1W 0D 9L across their last 10 — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

At home, Muangthong United have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Muangthong United are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Lamphun Warrior have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 7D 1L. Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Lamphun Warrior's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On a straight form reading, Lamphun Warrior are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record in our data favours Muangthong United, who have won 5 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against Lamphun Warrior — Lamphun Warrior have 1 win, with 1 draw.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.9 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 3 Oct 2025, ended Muangthong United 2–2 Lamphun Warrior — a draw.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Muangthong United and goals — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches and an average of 3.9 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

Trading & In-Play

Muangthong United — key trading statistics (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Lamphun Warrior — key trading statistics (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Muangthong United 55% versus Lamphun Warrior 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Muangthong United 55% | Lamphun Warrior 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Muangthong United 1.30 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Muangthong United attack 0.785 / defence 1.496 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.895 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.540 / away 1.147. Muangthong United's attack rating of 0.785 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.30. Muangthong United's defence rating of 1.496 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lamphun Warrior's projected output up. Data: built from Muangthong United's last 49 games and Lamphun Warrior's last 50.

Result probabilities: Muangthong United 31% | Draw 27% | Lamphun Warrior 42%. Fair-value odds: Muangthong United 3.22 | Draw 3.69 | Lamphun Warrior 2.39. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record in our data (5 wins to 1), yet Lamphun Warrior are the in-form side right now — head-to-head edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.

On the Poisson output, Lamphun Warrior are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Muangthong United's last 10 home games and Lamphun Warrior's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Muangthong United 40% (last 10 home games) | Lamphun Warrior 60% (last 10 away games).

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