Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Lamphun Warrior at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lamphun Warrior host Sukhothai FC at 700th Anniversary Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 6 November 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Lamphun Warrior have gone 1W 7D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L D D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lamphun Warrior haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Lamphun Warrior's form when playing at home: 2W 7D 1L across 10 games at 700th Anniversary Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sukhothai FC — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sukhothai FC haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Sukhothai FC's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Lamphun Warrior) versus 0.70 (Sukhothai FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Lamphun Warrior: 6 wins from 8 previous clashes against 2 for Sukhothai FC, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Jan 2026, ended 3–0 with Lamphun Warrior winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Lamphun Warrior and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Lamphun Warrior in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Sukhothai FC in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 67% versus Sukhothai FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 47% | Sukhothai FC 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.61 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.946 / defence 0.988 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.867 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.583 / away 1.020. Data: 30 Lamphun Warrior games / 30 Sukhothai FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 53% | Draw 29% | Sukhothai FC 19%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 1.89 | Draw 3.45 | Sukhothai FC 5.26. Lamphun Warrior hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lamphun Warrior as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 70% | Sukhothai FC 20% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 6 Nov 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 53% | Draw 29% | Sukhothai FC 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.61 / Sukhothai FC 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.946 / def 0.988 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.867 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.583 / away 1.020 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Sukhothai FC xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Friday 6 November 2026 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 53% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 19% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC?
Record (8 meetings): Lamphun Warrior 6W | Draws 0 | Sukhothai FC 2W.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lamphun Warrior's attack rating (0.95) and Sukhothai FC's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sukhothai FC's attack versus Lamphun Warrior's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 2-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
53%
1.89
29%
3.49
19%
5.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
2.48
0.87
Sukhothai FC xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
5.40
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
20%
4.99
Win to Nil
22%
4.54
4%
26.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 11.7 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.4 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 0.87 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lamphun Warrior come into this having played 30 games, going 4W 17D 9L for 0.97 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-D. Lamphun Warrior haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Sukhothai FC sit at 0.93 PPG from 30 outings (6W 10D 14L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five. Sukhothai FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lamphun Warrior on 0.97 PPG, Sukhothai FC on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Lamphun Warrior's home form reads 2W 10D 3L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Sukhothai FC have taken 0.27 points per game from 15 outings (0W 4D 11L). That's a step down from their 0.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sukhothai FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lamphun Warrior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 0.77 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamphun Warrior have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Pre-Season
Sukhothai FC
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 4W 17D 9L in their last 30 games (0.97 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 6W 10D 14L in their last 30 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Lamphun Warrior's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.07 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 0.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lamphun Warrior go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Sep 2024, when Sukhothai FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lamphun Warrior's record when hosting Sukhothai FC specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Lamphun Warrior
0
Draws
2
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 6, Sukhothai FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 3-0 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamphun Warrior 73%, Sukhothai FC 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Lamphun Warrior) and 27% (Sukhothai FC).
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC in 73%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Sukhothai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 73% of Lamphun Warrior's recent matches and 27% of Sukhothai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Lamphun Warrior's recent games and 27% of Sukhothai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Sukhothai FC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.