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Poisson model rates Pattani at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pattani vs Sukhothai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Sukhothai FC travel to Rainbow Stadium to take on Pattani. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 November 2026, 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sukhothai FC stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sukhothai FC haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Sukhothai FC have gone 0W 1D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pattani 1.48 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pattani attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.816 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.019. Data: 0 Pattani games / 30 Sukhothai FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Pattani 47% | Draw 30% | Sukhothai FC 22%. Fair-value odds: Pattani 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Sukhothai FC 4.55. Pattani hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pattani at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pattani offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pattani vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Rainbow Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
📈 Recent Form
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • Sukhothai FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-W • Sukhothai FC away split: 0.10 PPG from 10 | GF 0.20 / GA 2.40 | CS 0
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pattani 47% | Draw 30% | Sukhothai FC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Pattani 1.48 / Sukhothai FC 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Pattani attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.816 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.585 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: Pattani (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Pattani xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Sukhothai FC xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pattani vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Pattani vs Sukhothai FC is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Rainbow Stadium.
Where is Pattani vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at Rainbow Stadium.
What competition is Pattani vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Pattani vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Pattani vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Pattani a 47% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Pattani the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pattani vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Pattani and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pattani vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pattani and Sukhothai FC?
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
What form are Pattani and Sukhothai FC in?
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • Sukhothai FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-W • Sukhothai FC away split: 0.10 PPG from 10 | GF 0.20 / GA 2.40 | CS 0
What do the betting odds say about Pattani vs Sukhothai FC?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture