Pattani vs Sukhothai FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pattani at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pattani vs Sukhothai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Sukhothai FC travel to Rainbow Stadium to take on Pattani. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 November 2026, 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Pattani have gone 0W 1D 0L from 1 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Pattani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sukhothai FC stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sukhothai FC haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Sukhothai FC have gone 0W 1D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Pattani) versus 0.70 (Sukhothai FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using overall form). Pattani's 0% and Sukhothai FC's 20% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pattani 1.11 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pattani attack 0.710 / defence 0.992 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.887 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 0.918. Pattani's attack strength of 0.710 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 1 Pattani games / 30 Sukhothai FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Pattani 42% | Draw 33% | Sukhothai FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Pattani 2.38 | Draw 3.03 | Sukhothai FC 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pattani at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pattani offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.91 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pattani vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Rainbow Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pattani 42% | Draw 33% | Sukhothai FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Pattani 1.11 / Sukhothai FC 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Pattani attack 0.710 / def 0.992 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.887 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.438 / away 0.918 • Poisson stance: Pattani (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Pattani xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Sukhothai FC xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pattani vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Pattani vs Sukhothai FC is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Rainbow Stadium.
Where is Pattani vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at Rainbow Stadium.
What competition is Pattani vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Pattani vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Pattani vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Pattani a 42% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 26% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Pattani the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pattani vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Pattani and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pattani vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pattani and Sukhothai FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pattani and Sukhothai FC in?
Pattani (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 D. Sukhothai FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Pattani's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Sukhothai FC's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, Sukhothai FC's attack versus Pattani's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 1/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pattani Win
42%
2.41
33%
3.04
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Pattani xG
Total xG
1.91
0.81
Sukhothai FC xG
2.41
42%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
8%
11.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 11.9 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 13.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.0 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pattani vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Pattani and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Pattani and 0.81 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Pattani vs Sukhothai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pattani's recent record stands at 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Pattani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sukhothai FC, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 0L across 1 games — 3.00 PPG, with W in their last five. Sukhothai FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sukhothai FC by 2.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pattani heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Pattani are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 3.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Sukhothai FC's attacking output running into Pattani's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Pattani have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Sukhothai FC in 0%.
Defensively: Pattani have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games; Sukhothai FC in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pattani
Early Season
Sukhothai FC
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pattani and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Pattani have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Pattani or Sukhothai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pattani have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Sukhothai FC in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pattani home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pattani play Sukhothai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Pattani's recent matches and 0% of Sukhothai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pattani vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Pattani's recent games and 100% of Sukhothai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pattani and Sukhothai FC tend to score early?
Pattani have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Sukhothai FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.