Port FC vs Chonburi FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Port FC at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Port FC vs Chonburi FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Chonburi FC travel to PAT Stadium to take on Port FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 November 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Port FC stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Port FC haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Port FC have posted 7W 3D 0L at PAT Stadium — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PAT Stadium.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Chonburi FC have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Chonburi FC haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Chonburi FC have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Port FC have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Port FC have won 4, Chonburi FC 4, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2026, ended 2–3 with Chonburi FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Port FC trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Chonburi FC trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 40% versus Chonburi FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 47% | Chonburi FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.87 xG and Chonburi FC 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.113 / defence 0.896 | Chonburi FC attack 1.031 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.583 / away 1.020. Data: 30 Port FC games / 30 Chonburi FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Port FC 57% | Draw 26% | Chonburi FC 17%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.75 | Draw 3.85 | Chonburi FC 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Port FC 40% | Chonburi FC 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 57% | Draw 26% | Chonburi FC 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 53% | xG Port FC 1.87 / Chonburi FC 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.113 / def 0.896 | Chonburi FC attack 1.031 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.583 / away 1.020 • Poisson stance: Port FC (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Chonburi FC xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Port FC vs Chonburi FC is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at PAT Stadium.
Where is Port FC vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Chonburi FC part of?
Port FC vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 57% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 17% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Port FC and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Chonburi FC?
Record (8 meetings): Port FC 4W | Draws 0 | Chonburi FC 4W.
What form are Port FC and Chonburi FC in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Port FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Port FC's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Chonburi FC's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.87. The same calculation in reverse, Chonburi FC's attack versus Port FC's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
57%
1.74
26%
3.89
17%
5.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Port FC xG
Total xG
2.81
0.94
Chonburi FC xG
1.74
57%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
5.91
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
15%
6.47
Win to Nil
22%
4.47
3%
38.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 10.6 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Port FC and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Port FC and 0.94 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Chonburi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Port FC come into this having played 30 games, going 18W 6D 6L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. Port FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Chonburi FC sit at 1.30 PPG from 30 outings (10W 9D 11L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-W across their last five. Chonburi FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Port FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of Chonburi FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Port FC's home form reads 11W 4D 0L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.47 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Port FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Chonburi FC have taken 1.07 points per game from 15 outings (4W 4D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Port FC are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 1.27 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Pre-Season
Chonburi FC
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 18W 6D 6L in their last 30 games (2.00 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 10W 9D 11L in their last 30 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Chonburi FC away?
Port FC's home record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 2.47 PPG; Chonburi FC away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Port FC or Chonburi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Chonburi FC in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Sep 2025, when Port FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Port FC's record when hosting Chonburi FC specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Port FC
0
Draws
4
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Chonburi FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Port FC have won 4, Chonburi FC have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Chonburi FC 3-2 Port FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 73% of the time.
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 40%, Chonburi FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Port FC and 60% for Chonburi FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Chonburi FC in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Chonburi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Port FC's recent matches and 53% of Chonburi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port FC vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Port FC's matches and 60% of Chonburi FC's.
Do Port FC and Chonburi FC tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Chonburi FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.