Port FC vs Chonburi FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Port FC at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Port FC vs Chonburi FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Chonburi FC travel to PAT Stadium to take on Port FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 November 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Port FC stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Port FC have posted 9W 1D 0L at PAT Stadium — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PAT Stadium.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Chonburi FC have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Chonburi FC have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
On current form, Port FC have the edge — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Port FC have won 4, Chonburi FC 4, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2026, ended 2–3 with Chonburi FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Port FC trading profile (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Chonburi FC trading profile (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 47% versus Chonburi FC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 53% | Chonburi FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 2.14 xG and Chonburi FC 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.276 / defence 0.989 | Chonburi FC attack 0.860 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.284. Port FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.276 — their λ of 2.14 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 34 Port FC games / 35 Chonburi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 61% | Draw 21% | Chonburi FC 18%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | Chonburi FC 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.23 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Port FC 50% | Chonburi FC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 61% | Draw 21% | Chonburi FC 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 59% | xG Port FC 2.14 / Chonburi FC 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.276 / def 0.989 | Chonburi FC attack 0.860 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.517 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Port FC (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Chonburi FC xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Port FC vs Chonburi FC is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at PAT Stadium.
Where is Port FC vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Chonburi FC part of?
Port FC vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 61% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Port FC and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Chonburi FC?
Record (8 meetings): Port FC 4W | Draws 0 | Chonburi FC 4W.
What form are Port FC and Chonburi FC in?
Port FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Chonburi FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Port FC's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Chonburi FC's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.14. The same calculation in reverse, Chonburi FC's attack versus Port FC's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
61%
1.65
21%
4.69
18%
5.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Port FC xG
Total xG
3.23
1.09
Chonburi FC xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
5.56
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
12%
8.48
Win to Nil
20%
4.91
2%
47.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Port FC and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Port FC and 1.09 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Chonburi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Port FC come into this having played 34 games, going 21W 6D 7L for 2.03 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Chonburi FC sit at 1.12 PPG from 34 outings (10W 8D 16L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Port FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.91 PPG clear of Chonburi FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Port FC's home form reads 12W 4D 0L across 16 games on their own ground, a 2.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.03 PPG overall — Port FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Chonburi FC have taken 0.94 points per game from 16 outings (4W 3D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Port FC are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 1.24 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Defensively: Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Early Season
Chonburi FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 21W 6D 7L in their last 34 games (2.03 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 10W 8D 16L in their last 34 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Chonburi FC away?
Port FC's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 2.50 PPG; Chonburi FC away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Port FC or Chonburi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Chonburi FC in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Sep 2025, when Port FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Port FC's record when hosting Chonburi FC specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Port FC
0
Draws
4
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Chonburi FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Port FC have won 4, Chonburi FC have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Chonburi FC 3-2 Port FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 44%, Chonburi FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Port FC and 62% for Chonburi FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Chonburi FC in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Chonburi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Port FC's recent matches and 56% of Chonburi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port FC vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Port FC's matches and 62% of Chonburi FC's.
Do Port FC and Chonburi FC tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Chonburi FC in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.