Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 9 as Chiangrai United welcome Lamphun Warrior to Leo Chiangrai Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 November 2026 at 11:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Chiangrai United stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Chiangrai United haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Chiangrai United's home record at Leo Chiangrai Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Leo Chiangrai Stadium.

Lamphun Warrior — All Games: 1W 7D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lamphun Warrior haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Lamphun Warrior's form when playing away from home: 1W 7D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Chiangrai United carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Chiangrai United have won 2, Lamphun Warrior 3, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The last 8 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.6 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Chiangrai United in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games).

Lamphun Warrior in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chiangrai United 63% and Lamphun Warrior 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Chiangrai United 33% | Lamphun Warrior 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.39 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.927 / defence 0.949 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.960 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.583 / away 1.020. Data: 30 Chiangrai United games / 30 Lamphun Warrior games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 46% | Draw 31% | Lamphun Warrior 23%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | Lamphun Warrior 4.35. Chiangrai United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Chiangrai United as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Chiangrai United 40% | Lamphun Warrior 60%.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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