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Poisson model rates Ayutthaya FC at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ayutthaya FC vs Pattani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 8 as Ayutthaya FC welcome Pattani to Ayutthaya Province Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 November 2026 at 11:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ayutthaya FC have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Ayutthaya FC haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Ayutthaya FC at Ayutthaya Province Stadium this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ayutthaya FC 1.52 xG and Pattani 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ayutthaya FC attack 0.836 / defence 1.251 | Pattani attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.019. Data: 30 Ayutthaya FC games / 0 Pattani games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 45% | Draw 30% | Pattani 25%. Fair-value odds: Ayutthaya FC 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Pattani 4.00. Ayutthaya FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Ayutthaya FC as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ayutthaya FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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