Kanchanaburi 1-0 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kanchanaburi at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Kanchanaburi face Sukhothai FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sukhothai FC make the trip to Kanchanaburi Province Stadium to face Kanchanaburi in Thai League 1 (matchday 25). The match kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 11:30 UK time.
Current Form
Kanchanaburi's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Kanchanaburi's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sukhothai FC (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Sukhothai FC away from home: 0W 3D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Kanchanaburi against 0.90 for Sukhothai FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2025, ended Kanchanaburi 1–1 Sukhothai FC — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Kanchanaburi — key trading statistics (last 24 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sukhothai FC — key trading statistics (last 24 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kanchanaburi 54% versus Sukhothai FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kanchanaburi 46% | Sukhothai FC 42%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Kanchanaburi surrender their half-time lead 67% of the time, while Sukhothai FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kanchanaburi 1.58 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kanchanaburi attack 0.755 / defence 1.412 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.663 / defence 1.400. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.147. Kanchanaburi's attack rating of 0.755 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.58. Sukhothai FC's defence rating of 1.400 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Kanchanaburi's projected output up. Sukhothai FC's attack rating of 0.663 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.07. Kanchanaburi's defence rating of 1.412 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sukhothai FC's projected output up. Data: built from Kanchanaburi's last 24 games and Sukhothai FC's last 53.
Result probabilities: Kanchanaburi 46% | Draw 30% | Sukhothai FC 23%. Fair-value odds: Kanchanaburi 2.15 | Draw 3.30 | Sukhothai FC 4.32. Kanchanaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kanchanaburi at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kanchanaburi if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Kanchanaburi 50% (last 10 home games) | Sukhothai FC 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kanchanaburi vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 25 | Venue: Kanchanaburi Province Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 15 March 2026 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kanchanaburi 46% | Draw 30% | Sukhothai FC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Kanchanaburi 1.58 / Sukhothai FC 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Kanchanaburi attack 0.755 / def 1.412 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.663 / def 1.400 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Kanchanaburi (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Kanchanaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Sukhothai FC xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kanchanaburi vs Sukhothai FC FAQs
What time does Kanchanaburi vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Kanchanaburi vs Sukhothai FC kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Sunday 15 March 2026 at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium.
What was the final score in Kanchanaburi vs Sukhothai FC?
Kanchanaburi 1 - 0 Sukhothai FC.
Where is Kanchanaburi vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium.
What competition is Kanchanaburi vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Kanchanaburi vs Sukhothai FC is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 25) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Kanchanaburi vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Kanchanaburi a 46% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Kanchanaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kanchanaburi vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Kanchanaburi and Sukhothai FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Kanchanaburi vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Kanchanaburi's attack rating (0.76) and Sukhothai FC's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sukhothai FC's attack (0.66x) against Kanchanaburi's defence (1.41x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from Kanchanaburi's last 24 games and Sukhothai FC's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kanchanaburi Win
46%
2.15
30%
3.30
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Kanchanaburi xG
Total xG
2.66
1.07
Sukhothai FC xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
21%
4.86
Win to Nil
16%
6.29
5%
21.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.9 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kanchanaburi vs Sukhothai FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kanchanaburi vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Kanchanaburi and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Kanchanaburi and 1.07 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Kanchanaburi vs Sukhothai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kanchanaburi's recent record stands at 3W 10D 11L from 24 games, a 0.79 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Sukhothai FC, meanwhile, have gone 5W 10D 9L across 24 games — 1.04 PPG, with D-D-L-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.79 PPG for Kanchanaburi against 1.04 for Sukhothai FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Kanchanaburi have managed 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sukhothai FC's away record stands at 0W 3D 7L across their last 10 away games, a 0.30 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sukhothai FC's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kanchanaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kanchanaburi are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 0.92 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 24 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kanchanaburi
Blended
Sukhothai FC
Blended
Kanchanaburi (Home) vs Sukhothai FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kanchanaburi
Blended
Sukhothai FC
Blended
❓ Kanchanaburi vs Sukhothai FC Form FAQs
What form are Kanchanaburi and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Kanchanaburi have gone 3W 10D 11L in their last 24 games (0.79 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 5W 10D 9L in their last 24 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kanchanaburi at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Kanchanaburi's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kanchanaburi at home: 1.10 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 0.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2025 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was on 15 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Kanchanaburi
1
Draws
0
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Kanchanaburi vs Sukhothai FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kanchanaburi and Sukhothai FC?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Kanchanaburi have won 1, Sukhothai FC have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Kanchanaburi and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 March 2026: Kanchanaburi 1-0 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Kanchanaburi and Sukhothai FC?
Kanchanaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kanchanaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 60% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kanchanaburi 50%, Sukhothai FC 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Kanchanaburi) and 40% (Sukhothai FC).
On the defensive side: Kanchanaburi keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Kanchanaburi have failed to score in 30% of games; Sukhothai FC in 70%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kanchanaburi home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kanchanaburi vs Sukhothai FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kanchanaburi and Sukhothai FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Kanchanaburi's recent matches and 30% of Sukhothai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Kanchanaburi and Sukhothai FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Kanchanaburi's recent games and 40% of Sukhothai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kanchanaburi and Sukhothai FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Kanchanaburi's recent matches and 60% of Sukhothai FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kanchanaburi edge out Sukhothai FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kanchanaburi beat Sukhothai FC 1-0 at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kanchanaburi 1.58 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.07 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sukhothai FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kanchanaburi attack 0.76 / defence 1.41 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.66 / defence 1.40, drawn from 24/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kanchanaburi 46% | Draw 30% | Sukhothai FC 23%, with Kanchanaburi to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kanchanaburi 46%, Sukhothai FC 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kanchanaburi's trading profile (24 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (24 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kanchanaburi 0.79 PPG, Sukhothai FC 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kanchanaburi win broke the near-deadlock. Kanchanaburi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.