Chonburi FC 0-1 Ayutthaya FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Chonburi FC face Ayutthaya FC.

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Fixture Analysis

Chonburi FC welcome Ayutthaya FC to IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 23). Kick-off is Saturday 28 February 2026 at 11:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Chonburi FC — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Chonburi FC have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Ayutthaya FC stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

On the road, Ayutthaya FC have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Chonburi FC) versus 1.60 (Ayutthaya FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Chonburi FC's games and 60% of Ayutthaya FC's (from Chonburi FC's last 10 home games and Ayutthaya FC's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Chonburi FC have won 1, Ayutthaya FC 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2025, ended Chonburi FC 2–1 Ayutthaya FC — a Chonburi FC win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Chonburi FC in-play tendencies (last 21 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Ayutthaya FC in-play tendencies (last 21 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 75%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chonburi FC 62% and Ayutthaya FC 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 43% | Ayutthaya FC 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Chonburi FC surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while Ayutthaya FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Ayutthaya FC surrender HT leads in 75% of cases while Chonburi FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.33 xG and Ayutthaya FC 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.918 / defence 1.079 | Ayutthaya FC attack 0.983 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.130. Data: built from Chonburi FC's last 21 games and Ayutthaya FC's last 21.

Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 38% | Draw 30% | Ayutthaya FC 32%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 2.64 | Draw 3.31 | Ayutthaya FC 3.14. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Chonburi FC at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chonburi FC 70% (last 10 home games) | Ayutthaya FC 60% (last 10 away games).

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