Chiangrai United 1-3 Chonburi FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Chiangrai United face Chonburi FC.

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Fixture Analysis

Chiangrai United welcome Chonburi FC to Leo Chiangrai Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 22). Kick-off is Saturday 21 February 2026 at 11:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Chiangrai United have gone 1W 6D 3L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Chiangrai United's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Chiangrai United are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Chonburi FC stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Chonburi FC away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Chiangrai United) versus 1.40 (Chonburi FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Chiangrai United, 1 for Chonburi FC and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Oct 2025, ended Chiangrai United 1–1 Chonburi FC — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Chiangrai United in-play and half-time data (last 20 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games).

Chonburi FC in-play and half-time data (last 20 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chiangrai United 70% and Chonburi FC 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Chiangrai United 30% | Chonburi FC 40%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Chiangrai United surrender their half-time lead 56% of the time, while Chonburi FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Chonburi FC surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Chiangrai United recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 60% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.17 xG and Chonburi FC 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.752 / defence 0.853 | Chonburi FC attack 0.766 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.120. Chiangrai United's attack rating of 0.752 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.17. Chonburi FC's attack rating of 0.766 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.73. Data: built from Chiangrai United's last 50 games and Chonburi FC's last 20.

Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 44% | Draw 34% | Chonburi FC 21%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 2.25 | Draw 2.91 | Chonburi FC 4.72. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Chiangrai United at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 1.90 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 70% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Chiangrai United's last 10 home games and Chonburi FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chiangrai United 40% (last 10 home games) | Chonburi FC 50% (last 10 away games).

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