Ayutthaya FC vs Sukhothai FC Prediction & Preview

Poisson model rates Ayutthaya FC at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ayutthaya FC face Sukhothai FC.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Ayutthaya Province Stadium plays host to Ayutthaya FC versus Sukhothai FC in Thai League 1 (matchday 21). Kick-off: Sunday 14 March 2027 at 12:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Ayutthaya FC have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Ayutthaya FC's form when playing at home: 3W 0D 7L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.60 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Sukhothai FC's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Sukhothai FC away from home: 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Ayutthaya FC edge it 1 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Nov 2026, ended Ayutthaya FC 3–0 Sukhothai FC — a Ayutthaya FC win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Ayutthaya FC — key trading statistics (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

Sukhothai FC — key trading statistics (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ayutthaya FC 60% versus Sukhothai FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ayutthaya FC 50% | Sukhothai FC 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ayutthaya FC 1.45 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ayutthaya FC attack 0.904 / defence 1.028 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.675 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.430. Sukhothai FC's attack rating of 0.675 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.99. Data: built from Ayutthaya FC's last 38 games and Sukhothai FC's last 38.

Result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 46% | Draw 30% | Sukhothai FC 24%. Fair-value odds: Ayutthaya FC 2.17 | Draw 3.37 | Sukhothai FC 4.11. Ayutthaya FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Ayutthaya FC are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ayutthaya FC if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ayutthaya FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Sukhothai FC 30% (last 10 away games).

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