🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Rasi Salai United at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rasi Salai United vs Pattani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Rasi Salai United and Pattani meet at Sisaket Provincial Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Friday 12 March 2027 at 12:00 UTC.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rasi Salai United 1.55 xG and Pattani 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rasi Salai United attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Pattani attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.019. Data: 0 Rasi Salai United games / 0 Pattani games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Rasi Salai United 48% | Draw 30% | Pattani 22%. Fair-value odds: Rasi Salai United 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Pattani 4.55. Rasi Salai United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Rasi Salai United at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rasi Salai United if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights