🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Uthai Thani travel to Thalay Luang Stadium to take on Sukhothai FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 March 2027, 11:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Sukhothai FC — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Sukhothai FC haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

At home at Thalay Luang Stadium, Sukhothai FC have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Sukhothai FC are significantly better at Thalay Luang Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Uthai Thani have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Uthai Thani haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Uthai Thani's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sukhothai FC at 0.70 PPG versus Uthai Thani's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Uthai Thani, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Sukhothai FC.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

It is worth noting that Uthai Thani have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Profile

Sukhothai FC in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

Uthai Thani in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sukhothai FC 47% versus Uthai Thani 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 37% | Uthai Thani 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.53 xG and Uthai Thani 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.978 / defence 0.966 | Uthai Thani attack 0.869 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.019. Data: 30 Sukhothai FC games / 30 Uthai Thani games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 51% | Draw 30% | Uthai Thani 19%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 1.96 | Draw 3.33 | Uthai Thani 5.26. Sukhothai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Sukhothai FC as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sukhothai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sukhothai FC 60% | Uthai Thani 40%.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights