Ayutthaya FC vs Rasi Salai United – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ayutthaya FC at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ayutthaya FC vs Rasi Salai United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ayutthaya FC host Rasi Salai United at Ayutthaya Province Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 March 2027 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ayutthaya FC stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ayutthaya FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Ayutthaya Province Stadium, Ayutthaya FC have gone 2W 0D 8L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Rasi Salai United have recorded 0W 1D 4L from 5 outings — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Rasi Salai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rasi Salai United's form when playing away from home: 0W 0D 3L across 3 road games this term (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 4.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ayutthaya FC at 0.70 PPG versus Rasi Salai United's 0.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Ayutthaya FC trading profile (5 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games.
Rasi Salai United trading profile (5 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ayutthaya FC 60% and Rasi Salai United 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ayutthaya FC 40% | Rasi Salai United 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ayutthaya FC 2.13 xG and Rasi Salai United 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ayutthaya FC attack 0.846 / defence 1.149 | Rasi Salai United attack 0.989 / defence 1.729. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.292. Rasi Salai United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.729 — this is suppressing Ayutthaya FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Ayutthaya FC games / 5 Rasi Salai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 52% | Draw 22% | Rasi Salai United 26%. Fair-value odds: Ayutthaya FC 1.92 | Draw 4.55 | Rasi Salai United 3.85. Ayutthaya FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.13 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ayutthaya FC are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ayutthaya FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.60 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ayutthaya FC 40% | Rasi Salai United 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ayutthaya FC vs Rasi Salai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Ayutthaya Province Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Mar 2027, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 52% | Draw 22% | Rasi Salai United 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 68% | xG Ayutthaya FC 2.13 / Rasi Salai United 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Ayutthaya FC attack 0.846 / def 1.149 | Rasi Salai United attack 0.989 / def 1.729 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Ayutthaya FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
Ayutthaya FC xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Rasi Salai United xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ayutthaya FC vs Rasi Salai United kick off?
Ayutthaya FC vs Rasi Salai United is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 on Sunday 7 March 2027 at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
Where is Ayutthaya FC vs Rasi Salai United being played?
The match is being played at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
What competition is Ayutthaya FC vs Rasi Salai United part of?
Ayutthaya FC vs Rasi Salai United is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ayutthaya FC vs Rasi Salai United?
Our statistical model gives Ayutthaya FC a 52% chance of winning, Rasi Salai United a 26% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Ayutthaya FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ayutthaya FC vs Rasi Salai United?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Ayutthaya FC and Rasi Salai United will score (BTTS).
Will Ayutthaya FC vs Rasi Salai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ayutthaya FC and Rasi Salai United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ayutthaya FC and Rasi Salai United in?
Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Rasi Salai United (all comps): 0W-1D-4L in 5 | 0.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ayutthaya FC's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Rasi Salai United's defensive record (1.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.13. The same calculation in reverse, Rasi Salai United's attack versus Ayutthaya FC's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ayutthaya FC Win
52%
1.91
22%
4.54
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
Ayutthaya FC xG
Total xG
3.60
1.47
Rasi Salai United xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.16
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
12%
8.42
Win to Nil
12%
8.30
3%
32.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ayutthaya FC vs Rasi Salai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Ayutthaya FC and Rasi Salai United expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Ayutthaya FC and 1.47 for Rasi Salai United, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Ayutthaya FC vs Rasi Salai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ayutthaya FC's recent record stands at 2W 1D 2L from 5 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rasi Salai United, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 4L across 5 games — 0.20 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Rasi Salai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ayutthaya FC by 1.20 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rasi Salai United heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ayutthaya FC have managed 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rasi Salai United's away record stands at 0W 0D 3L across 3 trips, a 0.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ayutthaya FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ayutthaya FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Rasi Salai United are on 1.40 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ayutthaya FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Rasi Salai United in 100%.
Last 5 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ayutthaya FC
Early Season
Rasi Salai United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ayutthaya FC and Rasi Salai United in coming into this match?
Ayutthaya FC have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 games (1.40 PPG), while Rasi Salai United have gone 0W 1D 4L in their last 5 (0.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ayutthaya FC at home or Rasi Salai United away?
Ayutthaya FC's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ayutthaya FC at home: 1.00 PPG; Rasi Salai United away: 0.00 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ayutthaya FC see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Rasi Salai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ayutthaya FC at 67%, Rasi Salai United at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Ayutthaya FC and 100% for Rasi Salai United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 100% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ayutthaya FC have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ayutthaya FC home games / Rasi Salai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ayutthaya FC play Rasi Salai United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Ayutthaya FC's games and 100% of Rasi Salai United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ayutthaya FC vs Rasi Salai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Ayutthaya FC's matches and 100% of Rasi Salai United's.
Do Ayutthaya FC and Rasi Salai United tend to score early?
Ayutthaya FC have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Rasi Salai United in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.