Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Pattani at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Ayutthaya FC travel to Rainbow Stadium to take on Pattani. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 March 2027, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pattani stand at 0W 1D 0L from 1 Thai League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Pattani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ayutthaya FC — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Ayutthaya FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Ayutthaya FC have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pattani 1.00 PPG, Ayutthaya FC 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pattani 1.04 xG and Ayutthaya FC 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pattani attack 0.712 / defence 0.976 | Ayutthaya FC attack 0.974 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.091. Pattani's attack strength of 0.712 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 1 Pattani games / 31 Ayutthaya FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Pattani 34% | Draw 31% | Ayutthaya FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Pattani 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | Ayutthaya FC 2.94. The draw (31%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 31% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.2 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Rainbow Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Mar 2027, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pattani 34% | Draw 31% | Ayutthaya FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Pattani 1.04 / Ayutthaya FC 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Pattani attack 0.712 / def 0.976 | Ayutthaya FC attack 0.974 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Draw (31%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Pattani xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Ayutthaya FC xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC kick off?
Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Sunday 21 March 2027 at Rainbow Stadium.
Where is Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC being played?
The match is being played at Rainbow Stadium.
What competition is Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC part of?
Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our statistical model gives Pattani a 34% chance of winning, Ayutthaya FC a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Pattani and Ayutthaya FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pattani and Ayutthaya FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pattani and Ayutthaya FC in?
Pattani (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 D. Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Pattani's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Ayutthaya FC's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, Ayutthaya FC's attack versus Pattani's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pattani Win
34%
2.91
31%
3.18
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Pattani xG
Total xG
2.08
1.04
Ayutthaya FC xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
12%
8.20
12%
8.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 13.0 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Pattani and Ayutthaya FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Pattani and 1.04 for Ayutthaya FC, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pattani come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 1D 0L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D. It's still early in the season for Pattani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Ayutthaya FC sit at 3.00 PPG from 1 outings (1W 0D 0L), a run that reads W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ayutthaya FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.00 PPG clear of Pattani — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Pattani are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Ayutthaya FC are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Ayutthaya FC's attacking output running into Pattani's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Pattani have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Ayutthaya FC in 100%.
Defensively: Pattani have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pattani
Early Season
Ayutthaya FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pattani and Ayutthaya FC in coming into this match?
Pattani have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Ayutthaya FC have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Pattani or Ayutthaya FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pattani have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Ayutthaya FC in 0%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pattani home games / Ayutthaya FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pattani play Ayutthaya FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Pattani's recent matches and 100% of Ayutthaya FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Pattani's recent games and 100% of Ayutthaya FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pattani and Ayutthaya FC tend to score early?
Pattani have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Ayutthaya FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.