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Poisson model favours Port FC (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Port FC face Chiangrai United.

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Full Analysis

PAT Stadium plays host to Port FC versus Chiangrai United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 13 March 2027 at 11:30 UTC.

Form

Port FC (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Port FC haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Port FC have posted 7W 3D 0L at PAT Stadium — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PAT Stadium.

Chiangrai United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Chiangrai United haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Chiangrai United's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form ledger tips toward Port FC. A 0.90 PPG lead over Chiangrai United (2.40 vs 1.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: Port FC 4W, Chiangrai United 2W, 4D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Mar 2026, ended 2–1 with Port FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Port FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.

Chiangrai United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 87% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 40% versus Chiangrai United 63%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Port FC 47% | Chiangrai United 33%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.81 xG and Chiangrai United 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.156 / defence 0.854 | Chiangrai United attack 1.057 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.019. Data: 30 Port FC games / 30 Chiangrai United games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Port FC 56% | Draw 27% | Chiangrai United 17%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.79 | Draw 3.70 | Chiangrai United 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Port FC at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Port FC 40% | Chiangrai United 80% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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