Utsikten 0-3 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Degerfors IF at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Utsikten vs Degerfors IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Degerfors IF make the trip to Bravida Arena to face Utsikten in Superettan (matchday 22). The match kicks off on Saturday 14 September 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Utsikten (all games): 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Utsikten's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Utsikten are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Degerfors IF have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D D D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Degerfors IF away from home: 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Degerfors IF are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Degerfors IF edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 1 Jun 2024, ended Utsikten 1–3 Degerfors IF — a Degerfors IF win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Utsikten — key trading statistics (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Degerfors IF — key trading statistics (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Utsikten 53% versus Degerfors IF 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utsikten 49% | Degerfors IF 57%). Note also that Degerfors IF surrender HT leads in 46% of cases while Utsikten recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utsikten 1.33 xG and Degerfors IF 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utsikten attack 0.973 / defence 1.098 | Degerfors IF attack 1.028 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.214. Data: built from Utsikten's last 51 games and Degerfors IF's last 21.
Result probabilities: Utsikten 36% | Draw 27% | Degerfors IF 38%. Fair-value odds: Utsikten 2.81 | Draw 3.72 | Degerfors IF 2.67. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Degerfors IF are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Utsikten 50% (last 10 home games) | Degerfors IF 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utsikten vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Superettan, matchday 22 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 September 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utsikten 36% | Draw 27% | Degerfors IF 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Utsikten 1.33 / Degerfors IF 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Utsikten attack 0.973 / def 1.098 | Degerfors IF attack 1.028 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Utsikten xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Degerfors IF xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Utsikten vs Degerfors IF FAQs
What time does Utsikten vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Utsikten vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in Utsikten vs Degerfors IF?
Utsikten 0 - 3 Degerfors IF.
Where is Utsikten vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is Utsikten vs Degerfors IF part of?
Utsikten vs Degerfors IF is a Superettan fixture (matchday 22) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Utsikten vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Utsikten a 36% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utsikten vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Utsikten and Degerfors IF will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Utsikten vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Utsikten's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Degerfors IF's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. Flip it around — Degerfors IF's attack (1.03x) against Utsikten's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from Utsikten's last 51 games and Degerfors IF's last 21 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
36%
2.81
27%
3.72
38%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Utsikten xG
Total xG
2.70
1.37
Degerfors IF xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.67
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
9%
11.07
10%
10.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.2 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Utsikten vs Degerfors IF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Utsikten vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Utsikten and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Utsikten and 1.37 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Utsikten vs Degerfors IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Utsikten's recent record stands at 22W 13D 16L from 51 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five.
Degerfors IF, meanwhile, have gone 17W 13D 21L across 51 games — 1.25 PPG, with D-D-D-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Utsikten against 1.25 for Degerfors IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Utsikten have managed 13W 6D 6L from their last 25 home games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Degerfors IF's away record stands at 5W 8D 12L across their last 25 away games, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Utsikten come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Utsikten are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.33 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Degerfors IF in 67%.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utsikten
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
Utsikten (Home) vs Degerfors IF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Utsikten
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
❓ Utsikten vs Degerfors IF Form FAQs
What form are Utsikten and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
Utsikten have gone 22W 13D 16L in their last 51 games (1.55 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 17W 13D 21L in their last 51 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utsikten at home or Degerfors IF away?
Utsikten's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utsikten at home: 1.80 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to June 2024 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent in our data was on 14 September 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Utsikten
0
Draws
2
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Utsikten vs Degerfors IF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Utsikten and Degerfors IF?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Utsikten have won 0, Degerfors IF have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Utsikten and Degerfors IF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 September 2024: Utsikten 0-3 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Utsikten and Degerfors IF?
Degerfors IF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Utsikten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 71% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Utsikten 60%, Degerfors IF 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Utsikten) and 52% (Degerfors IF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utsikten home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Utsikten vs Degerfors IF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Utsikten and Degerfors IF matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Utsikten's games and 64% of Degerfors IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Utsikten and Degerfors IF matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Utsikten's matches and 52% of Degerfors IF's.
Do Utsikten and Degerfors IF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Utsikten's recent matches and 80% of Degerfors IF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Degerfors IF run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Utsikten.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF beat Utsikten 0-3 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utsikten 1.33 xG and Degerfors IF 1.37 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Utsikten fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Degerfors IF outscored their 1.37 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utsikten attack 0.97 / defence 1.10 against Degerfors IF attack 1.03 / defence 0.97, drawn from 51/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utsikten 36% | Draw 27% | Degerfors IF 38%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utsikten 49%, Degerfors IF 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utsikten's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Utsikten 1.55 PPG, Degerfors IF 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Degerfors IF win broke the near-deadlock. Utsikten (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.