Degerfors IF 1-0 Gefle IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Degerfors IF at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Degerfors IF vs Gefle IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Degerfors IF host Gefle IF at Stora Valla in Superettan, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 19 September 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Degerfors IF have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Degerfors IF have posted 6W 3D 1L at Stora Valla — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gefle IF stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gefle IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gefle IF's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Degerfors IF carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Degerfors IF have won 0, Gefle IF 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Degerfors IF trading profile (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Gefle IF trading profile (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Degerfors IF 65% and Gefle IF 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 58% | Gefle IF 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 2.19 xG and Gefle IF 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 1.188 / defence 0.964 | Gefle IF attack 0.983 / defence 1.323. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.247. Gefle IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.323 — this is suppressing Degerfors IF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Degerfors IF games / 52 Gefle IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 60% | Draw 21% | Gefle IF 19%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | Gefle IF 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Degerfors IF (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.19 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Degerfors IF at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.38 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Degerfors IF 80% | Gefle IF 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Gefle IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Thursday 19 Sep 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 60% | Draw 21% | Gefle IF 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 62% | xG Degerfors IF 2.19 / Gefle IF 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 1.188 / def 0.964 | Gefle IF attack 0.983 / def 1.323 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Gefle IF xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Gefle IF kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Gefle IF kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 19 September 2024 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Gefle IF?
Degerfors IF 1 - 0 Gefle IF.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Gefle IF being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Gefle IF part of?
Degerfors IF vs Gefle IF is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Gefle IF?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 60% chance of winning, Gefle IF a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Gefle IF?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Degerfors IF and Gefle IF will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Gefle IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Gefle IF?
Record (1 meetings): Degerfors IF 0W | Draws 1 | Gefle IF 0W.
What form are Degerfors IF and Gefle IF in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Gefle IF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Degerfors IF's attack at 1.19x the league average against Gefle IF's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 2.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gefle IF's attack versus Degerfors IF's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
60%
1.67
21%
4.75
19%
5.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
3.38
1.18
Gefle IF xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
5.23
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
11%
8.98
Win to Nil
18%
5.44
2%
46.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Gefle IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Gefle IF expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.18 for Gefle IF, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Gefle IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Degerfors IF come into this having played 52 games, going 18W 13D 21L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-W. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gefle IF sit at 1.17 PPG from 52 outings (15W 16D 21L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Gefle IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Degerfors IF on 1.29 PPG, Gefle IF on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Degerfors IF's home form reads 12W 5D 9L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Gefle IF have taken 0.81 points per game from 26 outings (4W 9D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Degerfors IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Gefle IF are on 1.31 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Degerfors IF have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Blended
Gefle IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and Gefle IF in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 18W 13D 21L in their last 52 games (1.29 PPG), while Gefle IF have gone 15W 16D 21L in their last 52 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Gefle IF away?
Degerfors IF's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.58 PPG; Gefle IF away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Degerfors IF and Gefle IF runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Degerfors IF
1
Draws
0
Gefle IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Gefle IF?
From 2 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 1, Gefle IF have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Gefle IF last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2024, when Degerfors IF 1-0 Gefle IF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Gefle IF?
Degerfors IF have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Gefle IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 69%, Gefle IF 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Degerfors IF) and 54% (Gefle IF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gefle IF in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Gefle IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play Gefle IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Degerfors IF's games and 54% of Gefle IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Degerfors IF vs Gefle IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Degerfors IF's matches and 54% of Gefle IF's.
Do Degerfors IF and Gefle IF tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Gefle IF in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Degerfors IF edge out Gefle IF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF beat Gefle IF 1-0 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 23, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 2.19 xG and Gefle IF 1.18 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Degerfors IF fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Gefle IF landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 1.19 / defence 0.96 against Gefle IF attack 0.98 / defence 1.32, drawn from 22/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 60% | Draw 21% | Gefle IF 19%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 58%, Gefle IF 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Gefle IF's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Degerfors IF 1.29 PPG, Gefle IF 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Degerfors IF win broke the near-deadlock. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Gefle IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.