Trelleborg 2-1 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trelleborg at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trelleborg vs Orebro SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Trelleborg and Orebro SK meet at Vångavallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Friday 13 September 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Trelleborg have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trelleborg's home record at Vångavallen: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Orebro SK's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Orebro SK have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Trelleborg have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Orebro SK in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Trelleborg, 0 for Orebro SK and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jun 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Trelleborg — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Orebro SK — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trelleborg 53% versus Orebro SK 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trelleborg 53% | Orebro SK 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.59 xG and Orebro SK 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 0.909 / defence 1.131 | Orebro SK attack 0.895 / defence 1.246. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.250. Orebro SK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.246 — this is suppressing Trelleborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Trelleborg games / 51 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 44% | Draw 26% | Orebro SK 30%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Orebro SK 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trelleborg at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trelleborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Trelleborg 60% | Orebro SK 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Orebro SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Friday 13 Sep 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 44% | Draw 26% | Orebro SK 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Trelleborg 1.59 / Orebro SK 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 0.909 / def 1.131 | Orebro SK attack 0.895 / def 1.246 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Orebro SK xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs Orebro SK kick off?
Trelleborg vs Orebro SK kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 13 September 2024 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Orebro SK?
Trelleborg 2 - 1 Orebro SK.
Where is Trelleborg vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Orebro SK part of?
Trelleborg vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 44% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Trelleborg and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Orebro SK?
Record (5 meetings): Trelleborg 1W | Draws 4 | Orebro SK 0W.
What form are Trelleborg and Orebro SK in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Orebro SK (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Trelleborg's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Orebro SK's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. Flip it around — Orebro SK's attack (0.90x) against Trelleborg's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
44%
2.26
26%
3.84
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
2.85
1.26
Orebro SK xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
12%
8.01
6%
16.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.6 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Trelleborg and 1.26 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Trelleborg come into this having played 51 games, going 18W 14D 19L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Orebro SK sit at 1.14 PPG from 51 outings (14W 16D 21L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Trelleborg against 1.14 for Orebro SK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Trelleborg's home form reads 10W 6D 9L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Orebro SK have taken 0.56 points per game from 25 outings (3W 5D 17L). That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Orebro SK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trelleborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Trelleborg are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 1.37 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Blended
Orebro SK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trelleborg and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 18W 14D 19L in their last 51 games (1.33 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 14W 16D 21L in their last 51 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or Orebro SK away?
Trelleborg's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 1.44 PPG; Orebro SK away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 8 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trelleborg have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Orebro SK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Trelleborg
6
Draws
0
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Orebro SK?
From 8 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 2, Orebro SK have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2025, when Trelleborg 1-1 Orebro SK.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and Orebro SK?
Trelleborg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trelleborg 48%, Orebro SK 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Trelleborg and 76% for Orebro SK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trelleborg keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Orebro SK in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trelleborg play Orebro SK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Trelleborg's recent matches and 60% of Orebro SK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trelleborg vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Trelleborg's matches and 76% of Orebro SK's.
Do Trelleborg and Orebro SK tend to score early?
Trelleborg have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trelleborg edge out Orebro SK 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg beat Orebro SK 2-1 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 22, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.59 xG and Orebro SK 1.26 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.91 / defence 1.13 against Orebro SK attack 0.90 / defence 1.25, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 44% | Draw 26% | Orebro SK 30%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 53%, Orebro SK 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Orebro SK's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trelleborg 1.33 PPG, Orebro SK 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trelleborg win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.