GIF Sundsvall 0-0 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
NP3 Arena plays host to GIF Sundsvall versus IK brage in Superettan, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 14 September 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
GIF Sundsvall's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, GIF Sundsvall have posted 5W 2D 3L at NP3 Arena — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — GIF Sundsvall are significantly better at NP3 Arena than their overall form suggests.
IK brage have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, IK brage have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to IK brage, who have claimed 3 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Jun 2024, ended 0–5 with IK brage winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. IK brage have won 3 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
GIF Sundsvall — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
IK brage — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 45% versus IK brage 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 47% | IK brage 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.12 xG and IK brage 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.005 / defence 0.943 | IK brage attack 0.856 / defence 0.789. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.214. IK brage's defence strength of 0.789 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 51 GIF Sundsvall games / 51 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 38% | Draw 31% | IK brage 31%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | IK brage 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, GIF Sundsvall are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: GIF Sundsvall 60% | IK brage 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Sep 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 38% | Draw 31% | IK brage 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.12 / IK brage 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.005 / def 0.943 | IK brage attack 0.856 / def 0.789 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
0.98
IK brage xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 14 September 2024 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage?
GIF Sundsvall 0 - 0 IK brage.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 38% chance of winning, IK brage a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and IK brage?
Record (5 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 0W | Draws 2 | IK brage 3W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and IK brage in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. IK brage (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from GIF Sundsvall's attack rating (1.00) and IK brage's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — IK brage's attack (0.86x) against GIF Sundsvall's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
38%
2.63
31%
3.22
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.10
0.98
IK brage xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
14%
7.00
10%
9.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 12.0 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 0.98 for IK brage, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
GIF Sundsvall's recent record stands at 14W 13D 24L from 51 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IK brage, meanwhile, have gone 21W 10D 20L across 51 games — 1.43 PPG, with W-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for GIF Sundsvall against 1.43 for IK brage. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, GIF Sundsvall have managed 10W 7D 8L from 25 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IK brage's away record stands at 5W 6D 14L across 25 trips, a 0.84 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of IK brage's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIF Sundsvall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.25 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
IK brage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and IK brage in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 14W 13D 24L in their last 51 games (1.08 PPG), while IK brage have gone 21W 10D 20L in their last 51 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or IK brage away?
GIF Sundsvall's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 1.48 PPG; IK brage away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 20 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IK brage won 5-0 on 23 Jun 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIF Sundsvall have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IK brage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
GIF Sundsvall
3
Draws
5
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and IK brage?
From 9 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, IK brage have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2026, when GIF Sundsvall 1-2 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and IK brage?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 60%, IK brage 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (GIF Sundsvall) and 32% (IK brage).
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; IK brage in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play IK brage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of GIF Sundsvall's recent matches and 40% of IK brage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of GIF Sundsvall's recent games and 32% of IK brage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIF Sundsvall and IK brage tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, IK brage in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at GIF Sundsvall's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall and IK brage finished level at 0-0 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.12 xG and IK brage 0.98 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall fell 1.1 short of their projected output. IK brage landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 1.00 / defence 0.94 against IK brage attack 0.86 / defence 0.79, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 38% | Draw 31% | IK brage 31%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 47%, IK brage 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
IK brage's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 1.08 PPG, IK brage 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. IK brage (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.