Gefle IF 2-3 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Orgryte IS at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gefle IF vs Orgryte IS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 22 as Gefle IF welcome Orgryte IS to Gavlevallen. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 September 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Gefle IF have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gefle IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gefle IF at Gavlevallen this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orgryte IS stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orgryte IS away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Orgryte IS's 1.70 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Gefle IF's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
Orgryte IS have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Gefle IF's 0 victories.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Jun 2024, ended 0–3 with Orgryte IS winning.
It is worth noting that Orgryte IS have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Gefle IF in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Orgryte IS in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gefle IF 57% versus Orgryte IS 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gefle IF 59% | Orgryte IS 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gefle IF 1.32 xG and Orgryte IS 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gefle IF attack 1.059 / defence 1.238 | Orgryte IS attack 1.049 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.235. Data: 51 Gefle IF games / 51 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gefle IF 31% | Draw 26% | Orgryte IS 43%. Fair-value odds: Gefle IF 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Orgryte IS 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Orgryte IS at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Gefle IF 70% | Orgryte IS 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gefle IF vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Gavlevallen • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gefle IF 31% | Draw 26% | Orgryte IS 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Gefle IF 1.32 / Orgryte IS 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Gefle IF attack 1.059 / def 1.238 | Orgryte IS attack 1.049 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Gefle IF xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Orgryte IS xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gefle IF vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Gefle IF vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Gavlevallen.
What was the final score in Gefle IF vs Orgryte IS?
Gefle IF 2 - 3 Orgryte IS.
Where is Gefle IF vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Gavlevallen.
What competition is Gefle IF vs Orgryte IS part of?
Gefle IF vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gefle IF vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Gefle IF a 31% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gefle IF vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Gefle IF and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will Gefle IF vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and Orgryte IS?
Record (3 meetings): Gefle IF 0W | Draws 0 | Orgryte IS 3W.
What form are Gefle IF and Orgryte IS in?
Gefle IF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Orgryte IS (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Gefle IF's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Orgryte IS's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, Orgryte IS's attack versus Gefle IF's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
31%
3.24
26%
3.85
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Gefle IF xG
Total xG
2.93
1.60
Orgryte IS xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
20%
4.97
27%
3.76
Win to Nil
6%
16.11
11%
8.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.4 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.5 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gefle IF vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Gefle IF and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Gefle IF and 1.60 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Gefle IF vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gefle IF's recent record stands at 15W 16D 20L from 51 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Gefle IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Orgryte IS, meanwhile, have gone 17W 11D 23L across 51 games — 1.22 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gefle IF on 1.20 PPG, Orgryte IS on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Gefle IF have managed 11W 7D 7L from 25 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Gefle IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Orgryte IS's away record stands at 9W 4D 12L across 25 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Gefle IF are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.27 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gefle IF
Blended
Orgryte IS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gefle IF and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
Gefle IF have gone 15W 16D 20L in their last 51 games (1.20 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 17W 11D 23L in their last 51 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gefle IF at home or Orgryte IS away?
Gefle IF's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gefle IF at home: 1.60 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gefle IF and Orgryte IS runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Orgryte IS have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Jun 2024, when Orgryte IS won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gefle IF's record when hosting Orgryte IS specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Gefle IF
0
Draws
4
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and Orgryte IS?
From 4 meetings on record, Gefle IF have won 0, Orgryte IS have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gefle IF and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 15 September 2024, when Gefle IF 2-3 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Gefle IF and Orgryte IS?
Orgryte IS have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gefle IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gefle IF 60%, Orgryte IS 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Gefle IF) and 44% (Orgryte IS).
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS in 32%; Orgryte IS in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gefle IF home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gefle IF play Orgryte IS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Gefle IF's recent matches and 48% of Orgryte IS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gefle IF vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Gefle IF's recent games and 44% of Orgryte IS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gefle IF and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
Gefle IF have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Orgryte IS edge out Gefle IF 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat Gefle IF 2-3 at Gavlevallen, Regular Season - 22, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gefle IF 1.32 xG and Orgryte IS 1.60 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Orgryte IS outscored their 1.60 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gefle IF attack 1.06 / defence 1.24 against Orgryte IS attack 1.05 / defence 0.90, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gefle IF 31% | Draw 26% | Orgryte IS 43%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gefle IF 59%, Orgryte IS 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gefle IF's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gefle IF 1.20 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orgryte IS win broke the near-deadlock. Gefle IF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.