Oddevold 3-2 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Varbergs BoIS FC at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oddevold vs Varbergs BoIS FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Oddevold host Varbergs BoIS FC at Rimnersvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 September 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Oddevold stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Oddevold, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oddevold's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Rimnersvallen this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Varbergs BoIS FC — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Varbergs BoIS FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Varbergs BoIS FC have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Varbergs BoIS FC — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Oddevold register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Varbergs BoIS FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Oddevold have won 0, Varbergs BoIS FC 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2024, ended 1–2 with Varbergs BoIS FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Oddevold trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Varbergs BoIS FC trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Oddevold 62% and Varbergs BoIS FC 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oddevold 71% | Varbergs BoIS FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oddevold 1.05 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oddevold attack 0.787 / defence 1.299 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.204 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.213. Oddevold's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Varbergs BoIS FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.204 — the away xG of 1.90 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 21 Oddevold games / 21 Varbergs BoIS FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oddevold 20% | Draw 23% | Varbergs BoIS FC 57%. Fair-value odds: Oddevold 5.00 | Draw 4.35 | Varbergs BoIS FC 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Varbergs BoIS FC (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Varbergs BoIS FC as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Oddevold 60% | Varbergs BoIS FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oddevold vs Varbergs BoIS FC | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Rimnersvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Sep 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oddevold 20% | Draw 23% | Varbergs BoIS FC 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 56% | xG Oddevold 1.05 / Varbergs BoIS FC 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: Oddevold attack 0.787 / def 1.299 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.204 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.392 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Varbergs BoIS FC (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Oddevold xG
Expected Goals
1.90
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oddevold vs Varbergs BoIS FC kick off?
Oddevold vs Varbergs BoIS FC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Rimnersvallen.
What was the final score in Oddevold vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Oddevold 3 - 2 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Where is Oddevold vs Varbergs BoIS FC being played?
The match is being played at Rimnersvallen.
What competition is Oddevold vs Varbergs BoIS FC part of?
Oddevold vs Varbergs BoIS FC is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Oddevold vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our statistical model gives Oddevold a 20% chance of winning, Varbergs BoIS FC a 57% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Varbergs BoIS FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oddevold vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Oddevold and Varbergs BoIS FC will score (BTTS).
Will Oddevold vs Varbergs BoIS FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Record (1 meetings): Oddevold 0W | Draws 0 | Varbergs BoIS FC 1W.
What form are Oddevold and Varbergs BoIS FC in?
Oddevold (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Oddevold's attack at 0.79x the league average against Varbergs BoIS FC's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Varbergs BoIS FC's attack versus Oddevold's defence, projects 1.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Varbergs BoIS FC Win
20%
4.95
23%
4.32
57%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Oddevold xG
Total xG
2.95
1.90
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
4.95
20%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
1.77
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
15%
6.68
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
3%
33.05
20%
5.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 9.9 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oddevold vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Oddevold and Varbergs BoIS FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Oddevold and 1.90 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Oddevold vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 21 outings, Oddevold have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 5W 7D 9L record — D-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Oddevold is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Varbergs BoIS FC's form line: 7W 5D 9L from 21 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-D. The sample for Varbergs BoIS FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Oddevold on 1.05 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Oddevold have posted 1.30 PPG from 10 outings (3W 4D 3L).
On the road, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Oddevold are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Varbergs BoIS FC are on 1.48 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Oddevold have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Varbergs BoIS FC in 62%.
Last 21 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oddevold
Blended
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oddevold and Varbergs BoIS FC in coming into this match?
Oddevold have gone 5W 7D 9L in their last 21 games (1.05 PPG), while Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 7W 5D 9L in their last 21 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oddevold at home or Varbergs BoIS FC away?
Oddevold's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oddevold at home: 1.30 PPG; Varbergs BoIS FC away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Oddevold and Varbergs BoIS FC runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Oddevold's record when hosting Varbergs BoIS FC specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Oddevold
1
Draws
2
Varbergs BoIS FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Varbergs BoIS FC?
From 5 meetings on record, Oddevold have won 2, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Oddevold and Varbergs BoIS FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Oddevold 2-4 Varbergs BoIS FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Oddevold are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oddevold 60%, Varbergs BoIS FC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Oddevold) and 50% (Varbergs BoIS FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 10% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Oddevold have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oddevold home games / Varbergs BoIS FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oddevold play Varbergs BoIS FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Oddevold's games and 60% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Oddevold vs Varbergs BoIS FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Oddevold's matches and 50% of Varbergs BoIS FC's.
Do Oddevold and Varbergs BoIS FC tend to score early?
Oddevold have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Varbergs BoIS FC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Oddevold defy the odds to beat Varbergs BoIS FC 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oddevold beat Varbergs BoIS FC 3-2 at Rimnersvallen, Regular Season - 22, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oddevold 1.05 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.90 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Oddevold beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oddevold attack 0.79 / defence 1.30 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.20 / defence 0.96, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oddevold 20% | Draw 23% | Varbergs BoIS FC 57%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Oddevold win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oddevold 71%, Varbergs BoIS FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oddevold's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oddevold 1.05 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Oddevold win broke the near-deadlock. Oddevold (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.