Trelleborg 2-1 Falkenbergs FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trelleborg at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trelleborg vs Falkenbergs FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Trelleborg host Falkenbergs FF at Vångavallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 June 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 0.96 xG and Falkenbergs FF 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 0.879 / defence 1.032 | Falkenbergs FF attack 0.776 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 0.894 / away 1.022. Falkenbergs FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.222 — this is suppressing Trelleborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Trelleborg games / 10 Falkenbergs FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 37% | Draw 33% | Falkenbergs FF 30%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | Falkenbergs FF 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Falkenbergs FF's lower xG of 0.82 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Trelleborg as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trelleborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.78 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Falkenbergs FF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Jun 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 37% | Draw 33% | Falkenbergs FF 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG Trelleborg 0.96 / Falkenbergs FF 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 0.879 / def 1.032 | Falkenbergs FF attack 0.776 / def 1.222 | league avg home 0.894 / away 1.022 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Falkenbergs FF xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs Falkenbergs FF kick off?
Trelleborg vs Falkenbergs FF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 20 June 2021 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Falkenbergs FF?
Trelleborg 2 - 1 Falkenbergs FF.
Where is Trelleborg vs Falkenbergs FF being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Falkenbergs FF part of?
Trelleborg vs Falkenbergs FF is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 37% chance of winning, Falkenbergs FF a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Trelleborg and Falkenbergs FF will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs Falkenbergs FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Falkenbergs FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Trelleborg and Falkenbergs FF in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Trelleborg's attack at 0.88x the league average against Falkenbergs FF's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Falkenbergs FF's attack versus Trelleborg's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
37%
2.68
33%
3.03
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
1.78
0.82
Falkenbergs FF xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.90
66%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
16%
6.07
11%
8.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.9 | 13.8 | 5.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.2 | 13.3 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 7.8 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.6%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Falkenbergs FF expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Trelleborg and 0.82 for Falkenbergs FF, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Falkenbergs FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Pre-Season
Falkenbergs FF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 26 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2025, when Falkenbergs FF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Trelleborg's record when hosting Falkenbergs FF specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Trelleborg
1
Draws
2
Falkenbergs FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Falkenbergs FF?
From 4 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 1, Falkenbergs FF have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Falkenbergs FF last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2025, when Trelleborg 1-1 Falkenbergs FF.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and Falkenbergs FF?
Falkenbergs FF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Falkenbergs FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Trelleborg edge out Falkenbergs FF 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg beat Falkenbergs FF 2-1 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 11, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 0.96 xG and Falkenbergs FF 0.82 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Trelleborg beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.88 / defence 1.03 against Falkenbergs FF attack 0.78 / defence 1.22, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 37% | Draw 33% | Falkenbergs FF 30%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.