Vasalund 0-3 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasalund vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Landskrona BoIS make the trip to Skytteholms IP to face Vasalund in Superettan, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 19 June 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasalund 1.04 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasalund attack 0.911 / defence 1.012 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.044 / defence 1.256. League average goals — home 0.913 / away 1.000. Landskrona BoIS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.256 — this is suppressing Vasalund's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Vasalund games / 10 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasalund 35% | Draw 30% | Landskrona BoIS 35%. Fair-value odds: Vasalund 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Landskrona BoIS 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasalund vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Skytteholms IP • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Jun 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasalund 35% | Draw 30% | Landskrona BoIS 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Vasalund 1.04 / Landskrona BoIS 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Vasalund attack 0.911 / def 1.012 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.044 / def 1.256 | league avg home 0.913 / away 1.000 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Vasalund xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Landskrona BoIS xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasalund vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Vasalund vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 19 June 2021 at Skytteholms IP.
What was the final score in Vasalund vs Landskrona BoIS?
Vasalund 0 - 3 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Vasalund vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Skytteholms IP.
What competition is Vasalund vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Vasalund vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasalund vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Vasalund a 35% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Vasalund vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Vasalund and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Vasalund vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasalund and Landskrona BoIS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vasalund and Landskrona BoIS in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Vasalund's attack at 0.91x the league average against Landskrona BoIS's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Landskrona BoIS's attack (1.04x) against Vasalund's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 9/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
35%
2.88
30%
3.34
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Vasalund xG
Total xG
2.10
1.06
Landskrona BoIS xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
12%
8.29
12%
8.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 12.9 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasalund vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Vasalund and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Vasalund and 1.06 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasalund vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasalund
Pre-Season
Landskrona BoIS
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Vasalund
0
Draws
2
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasalund and Landskrona BoIS?
From 2 meetings on record, Vasalund have won 0, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vasalund and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 20 November 2021, when Landskrona BoIS 3-1 Vasalund.
Who has won more matches between Vasalund and Landskrona BoIS?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasalund home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Landskrona BoIS run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Vasalund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Vasalund 0-3 at Skytteholms IP, Regular Season - 11, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasalund 1.04 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.06 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Vasalund fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Landskrona BoIS outscored their 1.06 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasalund attack 0.91 / defence 1.01 against Landskrona BoIS attack 1.04 / defence 1.26, drawn from 9/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasalund 35% | Draw 30% | Landskrona BoIS 35%, with Vasalund to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Landskrona BoIS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.