Landskrona BoIS 4-2 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Trelleborg travel to Landskrona Idrottsplats to take on Landskrona BoIS. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 July 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Landskrona BoIS stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Landskrona BoIS have posted 4W 2D 0L at Landskrona Idrottsplats — 2.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Trelleborg — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trelleborg away from home this season: 2W 2D 1L from 5 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Landskrona BoIS) versus 1.60 (Trelleborg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Landskrona BoIS register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Trelleborg in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Landskrona BoIS in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Trelleborg in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Landskrona BoIS 73% and Trelleborg 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 46% | Trelleborg 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.27 xG and Trelleborg 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.098 / defence 1.061 | Trelleborg attack 1.122 / defence 1.315. League average goals — home 0.878 / away 1.023. Trelleborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.315 — this is suppressing Landskrona BoIS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Landskrona BoIS games / 11 Trelleborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 38% | Draw 27% | Trelleborg 35%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Trelleborg 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Landskrona BoIS 67% | Trelleborg 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jul 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 38% | Draw 27% | Trelleborg 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.27 / Trelleborg 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.098 / def 1.061 | Trelleborg attack 1.122 / def 1.315 | league avg home 0.878 / away 1.023 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Trelleborg xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 17 July 2021 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg?
Landskrona BoIS 4 - 2 Trelleborg.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 38% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Trelleborg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Landskrona BoIS's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Trelleborg's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, Trelleborg's attack versus Landskrona BoIS's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
38%
2.66
27%
3.69
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.48
1.22
Trelleborg xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
11%
8.98
10%
10.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.1 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.9 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.22 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Landskrona BoIS come into this having played 11 games, going 6W 4D 1L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-W. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Trelleborg sit at 1.73 PPG from 11 outings (5W 4D 2L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Landskrona BoIS on 2.00 PPG, Trelleborg on 1.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Landskrona BoIS's home form reads 3W 2D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Trelleborg have taken 1.60 points per game from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Landskrona BoIS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.45 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Trelleborg in 73%.
Last 11 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
Trelleborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 6W 4D 1L in their last 11 games (2.00 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 5W 4D 2L in their last 11 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or Trelleborg away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 2.20 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 25 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Trelleborg have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jul 2023, when Landskrona BoIS won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Landskrona BoIS's record when hosting Trelleborg specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Landskrona BoIS
3
Draws
2
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 5, Trelleborg have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2025, when Trelleborg 1-0 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Landskrona BoIS see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Landskrona BoIS at 80%, Trelleborg at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Landskrona BoIS) and 60% (Trelleborg).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play Trelleborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Landskrona BoIS's games and 80% of Trelleborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Landskrona BoIS's recent games and 60% of Trelleborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Trelleborg in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Landskrona BoIS cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Trelleborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Trelleborg 4-2 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 12, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.27 xG and Trelleborg 1.22 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.10 / defence 1.06 against Trelleborg attack 1.12 / defence 1.31, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 38% | Draw 27% | Trelleborg 35%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 46%, Trelleborg 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Trelleborg's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 2.00 PPG, Trelleborg 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Landskrona BoIS win broke the near-deadlock. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Trelleborg (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.