Osters IF 4-1 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osters IF at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Osters IF face Trelleborg.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Osters IF host Trelleborg at Visma Arena in Superettan (matchday 23). Kick-off is Wednesday 18 September 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Osters IF — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Osters IF's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Osters IF are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Trelleborg stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Trelleborg away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Osters IF 1.50 PPG, Trelleborg 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Osters IF have won 4, Trelleborg 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 30 Jun 2024, ended Osters IF 4–1 Trelleborg — a Osters IF win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Osters IF trading profile (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Trelleborg trading profile (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osters IF 60% versus Trelleborg 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osters IF 60% | Trelleborg 54%). Note also that Trelleborg surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Osters IF recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 1.49 xG and Trelleborg 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 1.070 / defence 0.823 | Trelleborg attack 1.011 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.250. Data: built from Osters IF's last 52 games and Trelleborg's last 52.
Result probabilities: Osters IF 47% | Draw 28% | Trelleborg 26%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 2.14 | Draw 3.60 | Trelleborg 3.91. Osters IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Osters IF as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osters IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Osters IF 30% (last 10 home games) | Trelleborg 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, matchday 23 | Venue: Visma Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 18 September 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 47% | Draw 28% | Trelleborg 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Osters IF 1.49 / Trelleborg 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 1.070 / def 0.823 | Trelleborg attack 1.011 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Trelleborg xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Osters IF vs Trelleborg FAQs
What time does Osters IF vs Trelleborg kick off?
Osters IF vs Trelleborg kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Wednesday 18 September 2024 at Visma Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs Trelleborg?
Osters IF 4 - 1 Trelleborg.
Where is Osters IF vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Visma Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs Trelleborg part of?
Osters IF vs Trelleborg is a Superettan fixture (matchday 23) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 47% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Osters IF and Trelleborg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Osters IF vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Osters IF's attack at 1.07x the league average against Trelleborg's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Trelleborg's attack versus Osters IF's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Osters IF's last 52 games and Trelleborg's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
47%
2.14
28%
3.60
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Osters IF xG
Total xG
2.53
1.04
Trelleborg xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
17%
6.05
6%
17.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.4 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Osters IF vs Trelleborg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Osters IF and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Osters IF and 1.04 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 52 outings, Osters IF have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 25W 14D 13L record — D-W-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Trelleborg's form line: 19W 14D 19L from 52 games, 1.37 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osters IF on 1.71 PPG, Trelleborg on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Osters IF have posted 1.96 PPG from their last 26 home games (15W 6D 5L).
On the road, Trelleborg have gone 8W 8D 10L from their last 26 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osters IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Osters IF are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.27 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Blended
Trelleborg
Blended
Osters IF (Home) vs Trelleborg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Osters IF
Blended
Trelleborg
Blended
❓ Osters IF vs Trelleborg Form FAQs
What form are Osters IF and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
Osters IF have gone 25W 14D 13L in their last 52 games (1.71 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 19W 14D 19L in their last 52 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osters IF at home or Trelleborg away?
Osters IF's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osters IF at home: 1.96 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2021. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent in our data was on 18 September 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Osters IF have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Apr 2023, when Osters IF won Osters IF 5-2 Trelleborg.
Osters IF's record when hosting Trelleborg specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Osters IF
1
Draws
2
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Osters IF vs Trelleborg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Trelleborg?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Osters IF have won 5, Trelleborg have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Osters IF and Trelleborg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 September 2024: Osters IF 4-1 Trelleborg.
Who has won more matches between Osters IF and Trelleborg?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osters IF 42%, Trelleborg 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Osters IF) and 50% (Trelleborg).
On the defensive side: Osters IF keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Trelleborg in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Osters IF vs Trelleborg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Osters IF and Trelleborg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Osters IF's recent matches and 58% of Trelleborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Osters IF and Trelleborg matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Osters IF's recent games and 50% of Trelleborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osters IF and Trelleborg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Osters IF's recent matches and 73% of Trelleborg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Osters IF run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Trelleborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osters IF beat Trelleborg 4-1 at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 1.49 xG and Trelleborg 1.04 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Osters IF beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 1.07 / defence 0.82 against Trelleborg attack 1.01 / defence 1.00, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 47% | Draw 28% | Trelleborg 26%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 60%, Trelleborg 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osters IF's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Trelleborg's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osters IF 1.71 PPG, Trelleborg 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osters IF win broke the near-deadlock. Osters IF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm. Trelleborg (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.