Orgryte IS 2-1 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS encounter.

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Full Analysis

Gamla Ullevi plays host to Orgryte IS versus Landskrona BoIS in Superettan, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Thursday 19 September 2024 at 18:00 UTC.

Form

Orgryte IS (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Orgryte IS at Gamla Ullevi this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Gamla Ullevi this season.

Landskrona BoIS have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Landskrona BoIS away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for Orgryte IS against 1.50 for Landskrona BoIS. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Orgryte IS register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Landskrona BoIS in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Orgryte IS lead 2W to 4W over the last 7 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jun 2024, ended 3–4 with Landskrona BoIS winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Orgryte IS half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).

Landskrona BoIS half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 58% versus Landskrona BoIS 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 56% | Landskrona BoIS 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.32 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.157 / defence 1.158 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.163 / defence 0.815. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.247. Data: 52 Orgryte IS games / 52 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 29% | Draw 25% | Landskrona BoIS 45%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 3.45 | Draw 4.00 | Landskrona BoIS 2.22. Landskrona BoIS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.32 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Orgryte IS 70% | Landskrona BoIS 70% BTTS from recent games.

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