Trelleborg 1-1 Skövde AIK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trelleborg at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trelleborg vs Skövde AIK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Trelleborg host Skövde AIK at Vångavallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 September 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Trelleborg — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Vångavallen, Trelleborg have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Trelleborg are significantly better at Vångavallen than their overall form suggests.
Across all Superettan games this season, Skövde AIK have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Skövde AIK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Skövde AIK have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
On current form, Trelleborg have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Trelleborg, 2 for Skövde AIK and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Skövde AIK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Trelleborg in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Skövde AIK in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trelleborg 55% versus Skövde AIK 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trelleborg 55% | Skövde AIK 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.60 xG and Skövde AIK 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 0.964 / defence 1.130 | Skövde AIK attack 0.928 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.214. Skövde AIK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.211 — this is suppressing Trelleborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Trelleborg games / 53 Skövde AIK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 44% | Draw 26% | Skövde AIK 30%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Skövde AIK 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trelleborg are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trelleborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Trelleborg 60% | Skövde AIK 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Skövde AIK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 44% | Draw 26% | Skövde AIK 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Trelleborg 1.60 / Skövde AIK 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 0.964 / def 1.130 | Skövde AIK attack 0.928 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Skövde AIK xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs Skövde AIK kick off?
Trelleborg vs Skövde AIK kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Skövde AIK?
Trelleborg 1 - 1 Skövde AIK.
Where is Trelleborg vs Skövde AIK being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Skövde AIK part of?
Trelleborg vs Skövde AIK is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Skövde AIK?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 44% chance of winning, Skövde AIK a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Skövde AIK?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Trelleborg and Skövde AIK will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs Skövde AIK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Skövde AIK?
Record (5 meetings): Trelleborg 2W | Draws 1 | Skövde AIK 2W.
What form are Trelleborg and Skövde AIK in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Skövde AIK (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Trelleborg's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Skövde AIK's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, Skövde AIK's attack versus Trelleborg's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
44%
2.25
26%
3.85
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
2.88
1.27
Skövde AIK xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
12%
8.03
6%
16.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.5 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Skövde AIK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Skövde AIK expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Trelleborg and 1.27 for Skövde AIK, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Skövde AIK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Trelleborg's recent record stands at 19W 14D 20L from 53 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Skövde AIK, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 26L across 53 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-D-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Skövde AIK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trelleborg on 1.34 PPG, Skövde AIK on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Trelleborg have managed 11W 6D 9L from 26 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Skövde AIK's away record stands at 3W 7D 16L across 26 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Skövde AIK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trelleborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Trelleborg are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Skövde AIK are on 1.15 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Blended
Skövde AIK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trelleborg and Skövde AIK in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 19W 14D 20L in their last 53 games (1.34 PPG), while Skövde AIK have gone 15W 12D 26L in their last 53 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or Skövde AIK away?
Trelleborg's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 1.50 PPG; Skövde AIK away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Trelleborg or Skövde AIK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trelleborg have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Skövde AIK in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Trelleborg and Skövde AIK runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 September 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Trelleborg's record when hosting Skövde AIK specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Trelleborg
2
Draws
2
Skövde AIK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Skövde AIK?
From 6 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 2, Skövde AIK have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Skövde AIK last play each other?
They last met on 22 September 2024, when Trelleborg 1-1 Skövde AIK.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Skövde AIK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trelleborg 50%, Skövde AIK 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Trelleborg and 65% for Skövde AIK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trelleborg keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Skövde AIK in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Skövde AIK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trelleborg play Skövde AIK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Trelleborg's recent matches and 58% of Skövde AIK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trelleborg vs Skövde AIK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Trelleborg's matches and 65% of Skövde AIK's.
Do Trelleborg and Skövde AIK tend to score early?
Trelleborg have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Skövde AIK in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trelleborg and Skövde AIK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg and Skövde AIK finished level at 1-1 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 24, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.60 xG and Skövde AIK 1.27 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.96 / defence 1.13 against Skövde AIK attack 0.93 / defence 1.21, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 44% | Draw 26% | Skövde AIK 30%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 55%, Skövde AIK 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Skövde AIK's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trelleborg 1.34 PPG, Skövde AIK 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Skövde AIK (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.