GIF Sundsvall 0-2 Osters IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Osters IF travel to NP3 Arena to take on GIF Sundsvall. The game is scheduled for Monday 23 September 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, GIF Sundsvall have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIF Sundsvall's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at NP3 Arena this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osters IF stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Osters IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osters IF's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (GIF Sundsvall) versus 1.50 (Osters IF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. GIF Sundsvall register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Osters IF in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for GIF Sundsvall, 3 for Osters IF and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Jul 2024, ended 0–2 with Osters IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
GIF Sundsvall in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Osters IF in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 45% versus Osters IF 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 47% | Osters IF 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.21 xG and Osters IF 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.951 / defence 0.884 | Osters IF attack 0.912 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.209. Data: 53 GIF Sundsvall games / 53 Osters IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 40% | Draw 31% | Osters IF 29%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Osters IF 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is GIF Sundsvall at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: GIF Sundsvall 60% | Osters IF 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Monday 23 Sep 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 40% | Draw 31% | Osters IF 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.21 / Osters IF 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.951 / def 0.884 | Osters IF attack 0.912 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Osters IF xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 23 September 2024 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF?
GIF Sundsvall 0 - 2 Osters IF.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 40% chance of winning, Osters IF a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Osters IF will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Osters IF?
Record (5 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 1W | Draws 1 | Osters IF 3W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Osters IF in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Osters IF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
GIF Sundsvall's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Osters IF's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, Osters IF's attack versus GIF Sundsvall's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
40%
2.48
31%
3.24
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.18
0.97
Osters IF xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
15%
6.57
9%
11.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 11.0 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.3 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Osters IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 0.97 for Osters IF, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
GIF Sundsvall come into this having played 53 games, going 15W 14D 24L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-W. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Osters IF sit at 1.74 PPG from 53 outings (26W 14D 13L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Osters IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osters IF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
GIF Sundsvall's home form reads 10W 8D 8L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Osters IF have taken 1.46 points per game from 26 outings (10W 8D 8L).
The Goals Picture
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Osters IF are on 1.75 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Osters IF in 60%.
Last 53 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
Osters IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Osters IF in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 15W 14D 24L in their last 53 games (1.11 PPG), while Osters IF have gone 26W 14D 13L in their last 53 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Osters IF away?
GIF Sundsvall's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 1.46 PPG; Osters IF away: 1.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between GIF Sundsvall and Osters IF runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 15 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Osters IF have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Nov 2023, when Osters IF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
GIF Sundsvall's record when hosting Osters IF specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
GIF Sundsvall
1
Draws
5
Osters IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Osters IF?
From 7 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, Osters IF have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Osters IF last play each other?
They last met on 15 June 2026, when GIF Sundsvall 0-4 Osters IF.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Osters IF?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — GIF Sundsvall at 58%, Osters IF at 77%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (GIF Sundsvall) and 65% (Osters IF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Osters IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Osters IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of GIF Sundsvall's games and 77% of Osters IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of GIF Sundsvall's matches and 65% of Osters IF's.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Osters IF tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Osters IF in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Osters IF cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over GIF Sundsvall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osters IF beat GIF Sundsvall 0-2 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.21 xG and Osters IF 0.97 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Osters IF outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.95 / defence 0.88 against Osters IF attack 0.91 / defence 0.93, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 40% | Draw 31% | Osters IF 29%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Osters IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 47%, Osters IF 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Osters IF's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Osters IF arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.11. That form edge translated into the three points. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward. Osters IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.