Osters IF 1-2 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osters IF at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osters IF vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees IK brage travel to Visma Arena to take on Osters IF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 April 2022, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Osters IF have gone 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Osters IF's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Visma Arena this term (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Visma Arena.
Looking at all fixtures this season, IK brage stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Superettan this season, IK brage have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Osters IF 2.20 PPG, IK brage 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Osters IF, 1 for IK brage and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Osters IF in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
IK brage in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osters IF 43% versus IK brage 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osters IF 30% | IK brage 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 1.55 xG and IK brage 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 1.016 / defence 0.922 | IK brage attack 1.006 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.271. Data: 31 Osters IF games / 31 IK brage games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Osters IF 46% | Draw 25% | IK brage 29%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | IK brage 3.45. Osters IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Osters IF as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osters IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Osters IF 40% | IK brage 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Visma Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 46% | Draw 25% | IK brage 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Osters IF 1.55 / IK brage 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 1.016 / def 0.922 | IK brage attack 1.006 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
1.18
IK brage xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osters IF vs IK brage kick off?
Osters IF vs IK brage kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Visma Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs IK brage?
Osters IF 1 - 2 IK brage.
Where is Osters IF vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Visma Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs IK brage part of?
Osters IF vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 46% chance of winning, IK brage a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Osters IF and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Osters IF vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and IK brage?
Record (2 meetings): Osters IF 0W | Draws 1 | IK brage 1W.
What form are Osters IF and IK brage in?
Osters IF (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. IK brage (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Osters IF's attack at 1.02x the league average against IK brage's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, IK brage's attack versus Osters IF's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
46%
2.18
25%
3.97
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Osters IF xG
Total xG
2.73
1.18
IK brage xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
14%
7.09
6%
16.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.9 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Osters IF and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Osters IF and 1.18 for IK brage, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Osters IF have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 12W 10D 8L record — D-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
IK brage's form line: 10W 9D 11L from 30 games, 1.30 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osters IF on 1.53 PPG, IK brage on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Osters IF have posted 1.93 PPG from 15 outings (8W 5D 2L).
On the road, IK brage have gone 4W 5D 6L from 15 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osters IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Osters IF are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.33 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Defensively: Osters IF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Current Season
IK brage
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osters IF and IK brage in coming into this match?
Osters IF have gone 12W 10D 8L in their last 30 games (1.53 PPG), while IK brage have gone 10W 9D 11L in their last 30 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osters IF at home or IK brage away?
Osters IF's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osters IF at home: 1.93 PPG; IK brage away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Osters IF or IK brage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osters IF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, IK brage in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Osters IF and IK brage runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Aug 2022, when Osters IF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Osters IF's record when hosting IK brage specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Osters IF
1
Draws
4
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and IK brage?
From 9 meetings on record, Osters IF have won 4, IK brage have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Osters IF and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Osters IF 3-2 IK brage.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Osters IF see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osters IF 47%, IK brage 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Osters IF) and 60% (IK brage).
On the defensive side: Osters IF keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Osters IF have failed to score in 27% of games; IK brage in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osters IF play IK brage?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Osters IF's games and 67% of IK brage's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Osters IF vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Osters IF's recent games and 60% of IK brage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osters IF and IK brage tend to score early?
Osters IF have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, IK brage in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IK brage defy the odds to beat Osters IF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage beat Osters IF 1-2 at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 1.55 xG and IK brage 1.18 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. IK brage outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 1.02 / defence 0.92 against IK brage attack 1.01 / defence 1.02, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 46% | Draw 25% | IK brage 29%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual IK brage win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 30%, IK brage 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osters IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
IK brage's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osters IF 1.53 PPG, IK brage 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IK brage win broke the near-deadlock. Osters IF (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.