IK brage 1-2 Jonkopings Sodra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IK brage at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IK brage vs Jonkopings Sodra encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
IK brage host Jonkopings Sodra at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 18 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, IK brage stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
IK brage at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Jonkopings Sodra — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Jonkopings Sodra's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
On current form, IK brage have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, IK brage have won 1, Jonkopings Sodra 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
IK brage in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Jonkopings Sodra in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IK brage 57% versus Jonkopings Sodra 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 57% | Jonkopings Sodra 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 2.03 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 1.159 / defence 0.856 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.913 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.365. Data: 32 IK brage games / 32 Jonkopings Sodra games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: IK brage 60% | Draw 21% | Jonkopings Sodra 19%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | Jonkopings Sodra 5.26. The model has a clear lean to IK brage (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IK brage are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.10 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: IK brage 50% | Jonkopings Sodra 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Jonkopings Sodra | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Monday 18 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 60% | Draw 21% | Jonkopings Sodra 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 57% | xG IK brage 2.03 / Jonkopings Sodra 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 1.159 / def 0.856 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.913 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.516 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: IK brage (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Jonkopings Sodra xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs Jonkopings Sodra kick off?
IK brage vs Jonkopings Sodra kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 18 April 2022 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Jonkopings Sodra?
IK brage 1 - 2 Jonkopings Sodra.
Where is IK brage vs Jonkopings Sodra being played?
The match is being played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Jonkopings Sodra part of?
IK brage vs Jonkopings Sodra is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 60% chance of winning, Jonkopings Sodra a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both IK brage and Jonkopings Sodra will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs Jonkopings Sodra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Jonkopings Sodra?
Record (2 meetings): IK brage 1W | Draws 1 | Jonkopings Sodra 0W.
What form are IK brage and Jonkopings Sodra in?
IK brage (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
IK brage's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Jonkopings Sodra's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.03. The same calculation in reverse, Jonkopings Sodra's attack versus IK brage's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
60%
1.68
21%
4.75
19%
5.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
IK brage xG
Total xG
3.10
1.07
Jonkopings Sodra xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
5.18
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
13%
7.62
Win to Nil
20%
4.88
3%
39.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are IK brage and Jonkopings Sodra expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for IK brage and 1.07 for Jonkopings Sodra, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IK brage's recent record stands at 10W 9D 11L from 30 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Jonkopings Sodra, meanwhile, have gone 10W 8D 12L across 30 games — 1.27 PPG, with L-D-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: IK brage on 1.30 PPG, Jonkopings Sodra on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, IK brage have managed 6W 4D 5L from 15 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jonkopings Sodra's away record stands at 4W 3D 8L across 15 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IK brage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
IK brage are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Jonkopings Sodra are on 1.13 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Current Season
Jonkopings Sodra
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IK brage and Jonkopings Sodra in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 10W 9D 11L in their last 30 games (1.30 PPG), while Jonkopings Sodra have gone 10W 8D 12L in their last 30 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or Jonkopings Sodra away?
IK brage's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 1.47 PPG; Jonkopings Sodra away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IK brage and Jonkopings Sodra runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 November 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Nov 2023, when IK brage won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IK brage's record when hosting Jonkopings Sodra specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
IK brage
2
Draws
2
Jonkopings Sodra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Jonkopings Sodra?
From 6 meetings on record, IK brage have won 2, Jonkopings Sodra have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Jonkopings Sodra last play each other?
They last met on 11 November 2023, when IK brage 4-0 Jonkopings Sodra.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IK brage 47%, Jonkopings Sodra 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (IK brage) and 40% (Jonkopings Sodra).
On the defensive side: IK brage keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; IK brage have failed to score in 27% of games; Jonkopings Sodra in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Jonkopings Sodra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IK brage play Jonkopings Sodra?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of IK brage's recent matches and 47% of Jonkopings Sodra's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IK brage vs Jonkopings Sodra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of IK brage's recent games and 40% of Jonkopings Sodra's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IK brage and Jonkopings Sodra tend to score early?
IK brage have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Jonkopings Sodra in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jonkopings Sodra defy the odds to beat IK brage 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jonkopings Sodra beat IK brage 1-2 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 3, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 2.03 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.07 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. IK brage fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Jonkopings Sodra outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 1.16 / defence 0.86 against Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.91 / defence 1.16, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 60% | Draw 21% | Jonkopings Sodra 19%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Jonkopings Sodra win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 57%, Jonkopings Sodra 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IK brage 1.30 PPG, Jonkopings Sodra 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jonkopings Sodra win broke the near-deadlock. Jonkopings Sodra (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.