Dalkurd FF 2-0 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trelleborg at 43%, yet in-form Dalkurd FF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dalkurd FF vs Trelleborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 2 as Dalkurd FF welcome Trelleborg to Studenternas IP. Kick-off is set for Saturday 9 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dalkurd FF stand at 1W 1D 0L from 2 Superettan matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Dalkurd FF have played only a handful of Superettan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Trelleborg — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Trelleborg's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Dalkurd FF carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Dalkurd FF register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant matches, Trelleborg in 60% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalkurd FF 1.29 xG and Trelleborg 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalkurd FF attack 0.880 / defence 1.150 | Trelleborg attack 0.953 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.390. Data: 1 Dalkurd FF games / 31 Trelleborg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Dalkurd FF 32% | Draw 25% | Trelleborg 43%. Fair-value odds: Dalkurd FF 3.12 | Draw 4.00 | Trelleborg 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trelleborg at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dalkurd FF (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trelleborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalkurd FF vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalkurd FF 32% | Draw 25% | Trelleborg 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Dalkurd FF 1.29 / Trelleborg 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Dalkurd FF attack 0.880 / def 1.150 | Trelleborg attack 0.953 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.453 / away 1.390 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Dalkurd FF xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Trelleborg xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalkurd FF vs Trelleborg kick off?
Dalkurd FF vs Trelleborg kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Dalkurd FF vs Trelleborg?
Dalkurd FF 2 - 0 Trelleborg.
Where is Dalkurd FF vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Dalkurd FF vs Trelleborg part of?
Dalkurd FF vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Dalkurd FF vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Dalkurd FF a 32% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalkurd FF vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Dalkurd FF and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will Dalkurd FF vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalkurd FF and Trelleborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dalkurd FF and Trelleborg in?
Dalkurd FF (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D. Trelleborg (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Dalkurd FF's attack at 0.88x the league average against Trelleborg's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Trelleborg's attack versus Dalkurd FF's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
32%
3.10
25%
4.00
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Dalkurd FF xG
Total xG
2.81
1.52
Trelleborg xG
3.10
32%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
22%
4.59
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
7%
14.25
12%
8.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.1 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.8 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalkurd FF vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Dalkurd FF and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Dalkurd FF and 1.52 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalkurd FF vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 2 outings, Dalkurd FF have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 1W 1D 0L record — W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Dalkurd FF, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Trelleborg's form line: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games, 0.50 PPG, last five D-L. It's still early in the season for Trelleborg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Dalkurd FF are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Trelleborg.
The Goals Picture
Dalkurd FF are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dalkurd FF have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Trelleborg in 100%.
Last 2 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalkurd FF
Early Season
Trelleborg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalkurd FF and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
Dalkurd FF have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dalkurd FF and Trelleborg runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Dalkurd FF
0
Draws
1
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalkurd FF and Trelleborg?
From 2 meetings on record, Dalkurd FF have won 1, Trelleborg have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dalkurd FF and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2022, when Trelleborg 4-2 Dalkurd FF.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalkurd FF home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalkurd FF play Trelleborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Dalkurd FF's games and 100% of Trelleborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dalkurd FF vs Trelleborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Dalkurd FF's recent games and 50% of Trelleborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dalkurd FF and Trelleborg tend to score early?
Dalkurd FF have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Trelleborg in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dalkurd FF cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Trelleborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalkurd FF beat Trelleborg 2-0 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 2, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalkurd FF 1.29 xG and Trelleborg 1.52 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Trelleborg landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalkurd FF attack 0.88 / defence 1.15 against Trelleborg attack 0.95 / defence 1.01, drawn from 1/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Dalkurd FF 32% | Draw 25% | Trelleborg 43%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Dalkurd FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalkurd FF 50%, Trelleborg 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Dalkurd FF arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dalkurd FF conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Trelleborg managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.