Utsikten 3-2 IF Brommapojkarna – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Utsikten at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Utsikten vs IF Brommapojkarna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees IF Brommapojkarna travel to Bravida Arena to take on Utsikten. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 April 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utsikten 1.50 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utsikten attack 0.879 / defence 1.150 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.298. Data: 1 Utsikten games / 1 IF Brommapojkarna games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Utsikten 43% | Draw 25% | IF Brommapojkarna 32%. Fair-value odds: Utsikten 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | IF Brommapojkarna 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Utsikten at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Utsikten offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utsikten vs IF Brommapojkarna | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utsikten 43% | Draw 25% | IF Brommapojkarna 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Utsikten 1.50 / IF Brommapojkarna 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Utsikten attack 0.879 / def 1.150 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.482 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Utsikten (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Utsikten xG
Expected Goals
1.27
IF Brommapojkarna xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Utsikten vs IF Brommapojkarna kick off?
Utsikten vs IF Brommapojkarna kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in Utsikten vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Utsikten 3 - 2 IF Brommapojkarna.
Where is Utsikten vs IF Brommapojkarna being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is Utsikten vs IF Brommapojkarna part of?
Utsikten vs IF Brommapojkarna is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Utsikten vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our statistical model gives Utsikten a 43% chance of winning, IF Brommapojkarna a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Utsikten the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utsikten vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Utsikten and IF Brommapojkarna will score (BTTS).
Will Utsikten vs IF Brommapojkarna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Utsikten and IF Brommapojkarna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Utsikten and IF Brommapojkarna in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Utsikten's attack at 0.88x the league average against IF Brommapojkarna's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, IF Brommapojkarna's attack versus Utsikten's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Utsikten Win
43%
2.35
25%
3.96
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Utsikten xG
Total xG
2.77
1.27
IF Brommapojkarna xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
12%
8.35
7%
13.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.9 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Utsikten vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Utsikten and IF Brommapojkarna expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Utsikten and 1.27 for IF Brommapojkarna, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Utsikten vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utsikten
Pre-Season
IF Brommapojkarna
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Utsikten and IF Brommapojkarna runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 November 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Nov 2023, when IF Brommapojkarna won 0-7 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Utsikten's record when hosting IF Brommapojkarna specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Utsikten
1
Draws
1
IF Brommapojkarna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Utsikten and IF Brommapojkarna?
From 4 meetings on record, Utsikten have won 2, IF Brommapojkarna have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Utsikten and IF Brommapojkarna last play each other?
They last met on 27 November 2023, when IF Brommapojkarna 0-0 Utsikten.
Who has won more matches between Utsikten and IF Brommapojkarna?
Utsikten have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utsikten home games / IF Brommapojkarna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Utsikten edge out IF Brommapojkarna 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utsikten beat IF Brommapojkarna 3-2 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utsikten 1.50 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.27 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Utsikten beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utsikten attack 0.88 / defence 1.15 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Utsikten 43% | Draw 25% | IF Brommapojkarna 32%, with Utsikten to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.