Landskrona BoIS 1-3 Osters IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 40%, yet in-form Osters IF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Osters IF make the trip to Landskrona Idrottsplats to face Landskrona BoIS in Superettan, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Monday 4 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Landskrona BoIS have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Landskrona BoIS have posted 8W 0D 2L at Landskrona Idrottsplats — 2.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Landskrona BoIS are significantly better at Landskrona Idrottsplats than their overall form suggests.
Osters IF's overall Superettan record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Osters IF have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Osters IF are 1.20 PPG clear of Landskrona BoIS in recent Superettan fixtures (2.20 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Landskrona BoIS, 1 for Osters IF and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2021, ended 1–4 with Osters IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Landskrona BoIS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Osters IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 57% versus Osters IF 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Landskrona BoIS 47% | Osters IF 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.38 xG and Osters IF 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.076 / defence 0.974 | Osters IF attack 0.999 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 1.275. Data: 30 Landskrona BoIS games / 30 Osters IF games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 40% | Draw 26% | Osters IF 34%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Osters IF 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Osters IF (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Landskrona BoIS 50% | Osters IF 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Monday 4 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 40% | Draw 26% | Osters IF 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.38 / Osters IF 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.076 / def 0.974 | Osters IF attack 0.999 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.368 / away 1.275 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Osters IF xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 4 April 2022 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF?
Landskrona BoIS 1 - 3 Osters IF.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 40% chance of winning, Osters IF a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Osters IF will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Osters IF?
Record (2 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 0W | Draws 1 | Osters IF 1W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Osters IF in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Osters IF (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Landskrona BoIS's attack at 1.08x the league average against Osters IF's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Osters IF's attack (1.00x) against Landskrona BoIS's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
40%
2.50
26%
3.81
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.62
1.24
Osters IF xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
12%
8.65
9%
11.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.5 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Osters IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.24 for Osters IF, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 30 outings, Landskrona BoIS have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 13W 5D 12L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Osters IF's form line: 12W 10D 8L from 30 games, 1.53 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Landskrona BoIS against 1.53 for Osters IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Landskrona BoIS have posted 2.33 PPG from 15 outings (11W 2D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Landskrona BoIS are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Osters IF have gone 4W 5D 6L from 15 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.53 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Osters IF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Landskrona BoIS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Osters IF are on 1.10 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: Osters IF in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
Osters IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Osters IF in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 13W 5D 12L in their last 30 games (1.47 PPG), while Osters IF have gone 12W 10D 8L in their last 30 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or Osters IF away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 2.33 PPG; Osters IF away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Landskrona BoIS or Osters IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Landskrona BoIS have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Osters IF in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 4 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Osters IF won 1-4 on 2 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Landskrona BoIS have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Osters IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Landskrona BoIS
5
Draws
4
Osters IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Osters IF?
From 9 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 0, Osters IF have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Osters IF last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when Landskrona BoIS 2-2 Osters IF.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Osters IF?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Osters IF see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 53%, Osters IF 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Landskrona BoIS and 27% for Osters IF.
On the defensive side: Landskrona BoIS keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Osters IF in 33%; Osters IF in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Osters IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play Osters IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Landskrona BoIS's recent matches and 40% of Osters IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Landskrona BoIS's recent games and 27% of Osters IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Osters IF tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Osters IF in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Osters IF cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Landskrona BoIS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osters IF beat Landskrona BoIS 1-3 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 1, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.38 xG and Osters IF 1.24 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Osters IF outscored their 1.24 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.08 / defence 0.97 against Osters IF attack 1.00 / defence 0.93, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 40% | Draw 26% | Osters IF 34%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Osters IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 47%, Osters IF 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Osters IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.47 PPG, Osters IF 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osters IF win broke the near-deadlock. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Osters IF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.