Landskrona BoIS 1-2 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Landskrona BoIS vs Orgryte IS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Landskrona Idrottsplats plays host to Landskrona BoIS versus Orgryte IS in Superettan, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Landskrona BoIS's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Landskrona BoIS at Landskrona Idrottsplats this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Orgryte IS (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Orgryte IS's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Landskrona BoIS's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Orgryte IS's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Landskrona BoIS 3W, Orgryte IS 1W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Jun 2023, ended 1–0 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Landskrona BoIS half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Orgryte IS half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 61% versus Orgryte IS 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 56% | Orgryte IS 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.43 xG and Orgryte IS 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.952 / defence 1.019 | Orgryte IS attack 0.845 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.578 / away 1.224. Data: 59 Landskrona BoIS games / 59 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 46% | Draw 27% | Orgryte IS 28%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Orgryte IS 3.57. Landskrona BoIS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Landskrona BoIS at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Landskrona BoIS 70% | Orgryte IS 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 46% | Draw 27% | Orgryte IS 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.43 / Orgryte IS 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.952 / def 1.019 | Orgryte IS attack 0.845 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.578 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Orgryte IS xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Orgryte IS?
Landskrona BoIS 1 - 2 Orgryte IS.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Orgryte IS part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 46% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Orgryte IS?
Record (5 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 3W | Draws 1 | Orgryte IS 1W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Orgryte IS in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Orgryte IS (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Landskrona BoIS's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Orgryte IS's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. Flip it around — Orgryte IS's attack (0.84x) against Landskrona BoIS's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
46%
2.20
27%
3.77
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.48
1.05
Orgryte IS xG
2.20
46%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
16%
6.31
7%
14.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.6 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.05 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Landskrona BoIS come into this having played 59 games, going 22W 17D 20L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-L.
On the other side, Orgryte IS sit at 1.12 PPG from 59 outings (16W 18D 25L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Landskrona BoIS against 1.12 for Orgryte IS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Landskrona BoIS's home form reads 14W 9D 6L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.76 PPG return.
Away from home, Orgryte IS have taken 1.17 points per game from 29 outings (9W 7D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Landskrona BoIS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.27 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
Orgryte IS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 22W 17D 20L in their last 59 games (1.41 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 16W 18D 25L in their last 59 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or Orgryte IS away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 1.76 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 30 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Landskrona BoIS have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Orgryte IS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Landskrona BoIS
2
Draws
4
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Orgryte IS?
From 10 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 4, Orgryte IS have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 30 September 2025, when Orgryte IS 2-0 Landskrona BoIS.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 72%, Orgryte IS 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Landskrona BoIS) and 52% (Orgryte IS).
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play Orgryte IS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Landskrona BoIS's games and 55% of Orgryte IS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Landskrona BoIS's recent games and 52% of Orgryte IS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Orgryte IS defy the odds to beat Landskrona BoIS 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat Landskrona BoIS 1-2 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 30, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.43 xG and Orgryte IS 1.05 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Orgryte IS outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 0.95 / defence 1.02 against Orgryte IS attack 0.84 / defence 0.95, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 46% | Draw 27% | Orgryte IS 28%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Orgryte IS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 56%, Orgryte IS 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.41 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orgryte IS win broke the near-deadlock. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.