IFK Varnamo 2-0 Osters IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Varnamo at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Varnamo vs Osters IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Osters IF travel to Finnvedsvallen to take on IFK Varnamo. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 July 2021, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, IFK Varnamo stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for IFK Varnamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Varnamo's home record at Finnvedsvallen: 4W 0D 1L from 5 Superettan appearances (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Finnvedsvallen. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — IFK Varnamo are significantly better at Finnvedsvallen than their overall form suggests.
Across all Superettan games this season, Osters IF have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Osters IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Osters IF have posted 2W 1D 2L from 5 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 5 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
IFK Varnamo carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). IFK Varnamo's 20% and Osters IF's 20% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
In-Play Profile
IFK Varnamo in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Osters IF in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (IFK Varnamo 10% | Osters IF 40%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (IFK Varnamo 20% | Osters IF 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 0.85 xG and Osters IF 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.863 / defence 0.920 | Osters IF attack 0.737 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 0.889 / away 1.047. Data: 10 IFK Varnamo games / 11 Osters IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 36% | Draw 36% | Osters IF 28%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 2.78 | Draw 2.78 | Osters IF 3.57. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.56. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.56 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Osters IF's lower xG of 0.71 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 21% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 29%. Form rates corroborate: IFK Varnamo 20% | Osters IF 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs Osters IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jul 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 36% | Draw 36% | Osters IF 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% | BTTS 29% | xG IFK Varnamo 0.85 / Osters IF 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.863 / def 0.920 | Osters IF attack 0.737 / def 1.102 | league avg home 0.889 / away 1.047 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Osters IF xG
29%
BTTS
46%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Varnamo vs Osters IF kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs Osters IF kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 17 July 2021 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs Osters IF?
IFK Varnamo 2 - 0 Osters IF.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs Osters IF being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs Osters IF part of?
IFK Varnamo vs Osters IF is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs Osters IF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 36% chance of winning, Osters IF a 28% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs Osters IF?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both IFK Varnamo and Osters IF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Varnamo vs Osters IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Osters IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IFK Varnamo and Osters IF in?
IFK Varnamo (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Osters IF (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
IFK Varnamo's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Osters IF's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. The same calculation in reverse, Osters IF's attack versus IFK Varnamo's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 22.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.2%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Varnamo Win
36%
2.78
36%
2.79
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.8%
Home win
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
1.56
0.71
Osters IF xG
2.78
36%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
46%
Over 1.5
2.17
54%
Under 1.5
1.85
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.45
71%
BTTS No
1.41
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
18%
5.65
12%
8.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.1 | 15.0 | 5.3 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.8 | 12.7 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs Osters IF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.7%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and Osters IF expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 0.71 for Osters IF, a combined total of 1.56.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs Osters IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IFK Varnamo's recent record stands at 5W 2D 3L from 10 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for IFK Varnamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osters IF, meanwhile, have gone 3W 3D 4L across 10 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-L-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Osters IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours IFK Varnamo by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Osters IF heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, IFK Varnamo have managed 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.70 PPG overall — IFK Varnamo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Osters IF's away record stands at 1W 1D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IFK Varnamo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
IFK Varnamo are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game recently; Osters IF are on 0.90 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Varnamo have seen both teams score in 10% of their recent games.
Defensively: IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games; Osters IF in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Blended
Osters IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Varnamo and Osters IF in coming into this match?
IFK Varnamo have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 games (1.70 PPG), while Osters IF have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Varnamo at home or Osters IF away?
IFK Varnamo's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Varnamo at home: 2.25 PPG; Osters IF away: 1.00 PPG.
Have IFK Varnamo or Osters IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, Osters IF in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 9 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Osters IF have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Jun 2026, when Osters IF won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IFK Varnamo's record when hosting Osters IF specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
IFK Varnamo
1
Draws
3
Osters IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Osters IF?
From 5 meetings on record, IFK Varnamo have won 1, Osters IF have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and Osters IF last play each other?
They last met on 9 June 2026, when Osters IF 3-0 IFK Varnamo.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and Osters IF?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Osters IF tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — IFK Varnamo 0% BTTS, Osters IF 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for IFK Varnamo and 25% for Osters IF.
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Osters IF in 50%; Osters IF in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / Osters IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Varnamo play Osters IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of IFK Varnamo's recent matches and 25% of Osters IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Varnamo vs Osters IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of IFK Varnamo's recent games and 25% of Osters IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Varnamo and Osters IF tend to score early?
IFK Varnamo have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Osters IF in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Varnamo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Osters IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo beat Osters IF 2-0 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 12, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 0.85 xG and Osters IF 0.71 xG, a combined 1.56. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. IFK Varnamo beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.86 / defence 0.92 against Osters IF attack 0.74 / defence 1.10, drawn from 10/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 36% | Draw 36% | Osters IF 28%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 46% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 20%, Osters IF 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 10% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and duly kept one.
Osters IF's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, IFK Varnamo arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.20. Form held, and they took the win. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm. Osters IF (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.