Gais 0-2 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IK brage at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gais vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees IK brage travel to Gamla Ullevi to take on Gais. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 July 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gais stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Gais, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gais at Gamla Ullevi this season: 2W 0D 3L from 5 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
IK brage — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, IK brage have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.83 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gais 1.00 PPG, IK brage 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Gais register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, IK brage in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Gais in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
IK brage in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gais 27% versus IK brage 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gais 27% | IK brage 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 1.28 xG and IK brage 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 1.088 / defence 1.455 | IK brage attack 0.902 / defence 1.345. League average goals — home 0.878 / away 1.023. IK brage bring a strong defensive rating of 1.345 — this is suppressing Gais's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Gais games / 11 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gais 36% | Draw 26% | IK brage 38%. Fair-value odds: Gais 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | IK brage 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IK brage are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IK brage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Gais 60% | IK brage 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jul 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 36% | Draw 26% | IK brage 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Gais 1.28 / IK brage 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 1.088 / def 1.455 | IK brage attack 0.902 / def 1.345 | league avg home 0.878 / away 1.023 • Poisson stance: IK brage (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Gais xG
Expected Goals
1.34
IK brage xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gais vs IK brage kick off?
Gais vs IK brage kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 17 July 2021 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs IK brage?
Gais 0 - 2 IK brage.
Where is Gais vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs IK brage part of?
Gais vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 36% chance of winning, IK brage a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Gais and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Gais vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and IK brage?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gais and IK brage in?
Gais (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. IK brage (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Gais's attack at 1.09x the league average against IK brage's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, IK brage's attack versus Gais's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
36%
2.81
26%
3.81
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Gais xG
Total xG
2.63
1.34
IK brage xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
9%
10.77
11%
9.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.7 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.5 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Gais and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Gais and 1.34 for IK brage, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 11 outings, Gais have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 4W 1D 6L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Gais is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IK brage's form line: 2W 3D 6L from 11 games, 0.82 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-L. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gais on 1.18 PPG, IK brage on 0.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Gais have posted 1.20 PPG from 5 outings (2W 0D 3L).
On the road, IK brage have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Gais are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 0.82 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gais have seen both teams score in 27% of their recent games.
Defensively: Gais have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Blended
IK brage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gais and IK brage in coming into this match?
Gais have gone 4W 1D 6L in their last 11 games (1.18 PPG), while IK brage have gone 2W 3D 6L in their last 11 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gais at home or IK brage away?
Gais's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gais at home: 1.20 PPG; IK brage away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Gais or IK brage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gais have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, IK brage in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gais and IK brage runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Gais have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Aug 2023, when Gais won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gais's record when hosting IK brage specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Gais
0
Draws
1
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and IK brage?
From 4 meetings on record, Gais have won 3, IK brage have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gais and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 12 August 2023, when IK brage 0-4 Gais.
Who has won more matches between Gais and IK brage?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gais 60%, IK brage 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Gais and 60% for IK brage. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IK brage in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gais play IK brage?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Gais's games and 60% of IK brage's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gais vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Gais's matches and 60% of IK brage's.
Do Gais and IK brage tend to score early?
Gais have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, IK brage in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IK brage cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Gais.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage beat Gais 0-2 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 12, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 1.28 xG and IK brage 1.34 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Gais fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 1.09 / defence 1.46 against IK brage attack 0.90 / defence 1.34, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gais 36% | Draw 26% | IK brage 38%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 27%, IK brage 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gais's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
IK brage's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gais 1.18 PPG, IK brage 0.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IK brage win broke the near-deadlock. Gais (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. IK brage (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.