AFC Eskilstuna 2-0 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Eskilstuna at 37%, yet in-form GIF Sundsvall provide a compelling counter-argument — this AFC Eskilstuna vs GIF Sundsvall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tunavallen plays host to AFC Eskilstuna versus GIF Sundsvall in Superettan, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 18 July 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
AFC Eskilstuna's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for AFC Eskilstuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Eskilstuna at Tunavallen this season: 3W 2D 0L from 5 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tunavallen. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — AFC Eskilstuna are significantly better at Tunavallen than their overall form suggests.
GIF Sundsvall (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIF Sundsvall's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 2L across 5 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
GIF Sundsvall arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
AFC Eskilstuna — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
GIF Sundsvall — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Eskilstuna 27% versus GIF Sundsvall 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (AFC Eskilstuna 27% | GIF Sundsvall 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Eskilstuna 1.08 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.102 / defence 1.050 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.919 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 0.904 / away 1.034. Data: 11 AFC Eskilstuna games / 11 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 37% | Draw 30% | GIF Sundsvall 33%. Fair-value odds: AFC Eskilstuna 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | GIF Sundsvall 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AFC Eskilstuna at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form GIF Sundsvall (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AFC Eskilstuna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: AFC Eskilstuna 40% | GIF Sundsvall 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Eskilstuna vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Tunavallen • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jul 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 37% | Draw 30% | GIF Sundsvall 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG AFC Eskilstuna 1.08 / GIF Sundsvall 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.102 / def 1.050 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.919 / def 1.084 | league avg home 0.904 / away 1.034 • Poisson stance: AFC Eskilstuna (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Expected Goals
1.00
GIF Sundsvall xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Eskilstuna vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
AFC Eskilstuna vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 18 July 2021 at Tunavallen.
What was the final score in AFC Eskilstuna vs GIF Sundsvall?
AFC Eskilstuna 2 - 0 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is AFC Eskilstuna vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Tunavallen.
What competition is AFC Eskilstuna vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
AFC Eskilstuna vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AFC Eskilstuna vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives AFC Eskilstuna a 37% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making AFC Eskilstuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Eskilstuna vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both AFC Eskilstuna and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Eskilstuna vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and GIF Sundsvall?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and GIF Sundsvall in?
AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from AFC Eskilstuna's attack rating (1.10) and GIF Sundsvall's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — GIF Sundsvall's attack (0.92x) against AFC Eskilstuna's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Eskilstuna Win
37%
2.70
30%
3.32
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Total xG
2.08
1.00
GIF Sundsvall xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
14%
7.31
11%
8.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Eskilstuna vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are AFC Eskilstuna and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for AFC Eskilstuna and 1.00 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Eskilstuna vs GIF Sundsvall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AFC Eskilstuna come into this having played 11 games, going 3W 3D 5L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L. The sample for AFC Eskilstuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, GIF Sundsvall sit at 1.82 PPG from 11 outings (6W 2D 3L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIF Sundsvall carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of AFC Eskilstuna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
AFC Eskilstuna's home form reads 3W 2D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — AFC Eskilstuna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, GIF Sundsvall have taken 1.40 points per game from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of GIF Sundsvall's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AFC Eskilstuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AFC Eskilstuna are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.55 scored and 0.91 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: AFC Eskilstuna have seen both teams score in 27% of their recent games.
Defensively: AFC Eskilstuna have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; GIF Sundsvall in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Eskilstuna
Blended
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
AFC Eskilstuna have gone 3W 3D 5L in their last 11 games (1.09 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 6W 2D 3L in their last 11 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Eskilstuna at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
AFC Eskilstuna's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Eskilstuna at home: 2.20 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 1.40 PPG.
Have AFC Eskilstuna or GIF Sundsvall been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Eskilstuna have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, GIF Sundsvall in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 November 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AFC Eskilstuna have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
AFC Eskilstuna
1
Draws
2
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and GIF Sundsvall?
From 4 meetings on record, AFC Eskilstuna have won 1, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AFC Eskilstuna and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 5 November 2023, when GIF Sundsvall 1-1 AFC Eskilstuna.
Who has won more matches between AFC Eskilstuna and GIF Sundsvall?
GIF Sundsvall have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AFC Eskilstuna see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
GIF Sundsvall tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Eskilstuna 40%, GIF Sundsvall 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for AFC Eskilstuna and 20% for GIF Sundsvall.
On the defensive side: AFC Eskilstuna keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; GIF Sundsvall in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Eskilstuna home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Eskilstuna play GIF Sundsvall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of AFC Eskilstuna's recent matches and 40% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Eskilstuna vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of AFC Eskilstuna's recent games and 20% of GIF Sundsvall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Eskilstuna and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
AFC Eskilstuna have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 20% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AFC Eskilstuna cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over GIF Sundsvall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Eskilstuna beat GIF Sundsvall 2-0 at Tunavallen, Regular Season - 12, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Eskilstuna 1.08 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.00 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. AFC Eskilstuna beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. GIF Sundsvall landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.10 / defence 1.05 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.92 / defence 1.08, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Eskilstuna 37% | Draw 30% | GIF Sundsvall 33%, with AFC Eskilstuna to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Eskilstuna 27%, GIF Sundsvall 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, GIF Sundsvall arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with AFC Eskilstuna winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.