Landskrona BoIS 1-2 Falkenbergs FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs Falkenbergs FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Falkenbergs FF make the trip to Landskrona Idrottsplats to face Landskrona BoIS in Superettan, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Landskrona BoIS (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Landskrona BoIS have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Falkenbergs FF's overall Superettan record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Falkenbergs FF away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Falkenbergs FF arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Landskrona BoIS have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Falkenbergs FF in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Landskrona BoIS lead 1W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jul 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Landskrona BoIS — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Falkenbergs FF — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 60% versus Falkenbergs FF 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 60% | Falkenbergs FF 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.61 xG and Falkenbergs FF 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.006 / defence 1.036 | Falkenbergs FF attack 1.032 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.137. Data: 31 Landskrona BoIS games / 31 Falkenbergs FF games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 46% | Draw 26% | Falkenbergs FF 28%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Falkenbergs FF 3.57. Landskrona BoIS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Falkenbergs FF (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Landskrona BoIS 60% | Falkenbergs FF 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Falkenbergs FF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Apr 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 46% | Draw 26% | Falkenbergs FF 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.61 / Falkenbergs FF 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.006 / def 1.036 | Falkenbergs FF attack 1.032 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.584 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Falkenbergs FF xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Falkenbergs FF kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Falkenbergs FF kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 12 April 2026 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Falkenbergs FF?
Landskrona BoIS 1 - 2 Falkenbergs FF.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Falkenbergs FF being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Falkenbergs FF part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Falkenbergs FF is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 46% chance of winning, Falkenbergs FF a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Falkenbergs FF will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Falkenbergs FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Falkenbergs FF?
Record (4 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 1W | Draws 1 | Falkenbergs FF 2W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Falkenbergs FF in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Falkenbergs FF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Landskrona BoIS's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Falkenbergs FF's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. Flip it around — Falkenbergs FF's attack (1.03x) against Landskrona BoIS's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
46%
2.18
26%
3.80
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.83
1.22
Falkenbergs FF xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
14%
7.37
6%
17.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.6 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Falkenbergs FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.22 for Falkenbergs FF, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Falkenbergs FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Landskrona BoIS's recent record stands at 11W 8D 11L from 30 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-L in the last five.
Falkenbergs FF, meanwhile, have gone 12W 10D 8L across 30 games — 1.53 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Landskrona BoIS against 1.53 for Falkenbergs FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Landskrona BoIS have managed 6W 5D 4L from 15 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Falkenbergs FF's away record stands at 4W 5D 6L across 15 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.53 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Falkenbergs FF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Landskrona BoIS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Falkenbergs FF are on 1.77 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Falkenbergs FF in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
Falkenbergs FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Falkenbergs FF in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 11W 8D 11L in their last 30 games (1.37 PPG), while Falkenbergs FF have gone 12W 10D 8L in their last 30 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or Falkenbergs FF away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 1.53 PPG; Falkenbergs FF away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Landskrona BoIS or Falkenbergs FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Landskrona BoIS have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Falkenbergs FF in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Falkenbergs FF won 0-3 on 26 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Landskrona BoIS have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Falkenbergs FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Landskrona BoIS
1
Draws
3
Falkenbergs FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Falkenbergs FF?
From 5 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 1, Falkenbergs FF have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Falkenbergs FF last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Landskrona BoIS 1-2 Falkenbergs FF.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Falkenbergs FF?
Falkenbergs FF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Falkenbergs FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 67%, Falkenbergs FF 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Landskrona BoIS and 60% for Falkenbergs FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Falkenbergs FF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Falkenbergs FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play Falkenbergs FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Landskrona BoIS's games and 60% of Falkenbergs FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs Falkenbergs FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Landskrona BoIS's matches and 60% of Falkenbergs FF's.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Falkenbergs FF tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Falkenbergs FF in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Falkenbergs FF defy the odds to beat Landskrona BoIS 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Falkenbergs FF beat Landskrona BoIS 1-2 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 2, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.61 xG and Falkenbergs FF 1.22 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.01 / defence 1.04 against Falkenbergs FF attack 1.03 / defence 1.01, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 46% | Draw 26% | Falkenbergs FF 28%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Falkenbergs FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 60%, Falkenbergs FF 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Falkenbergs FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.37 PPG, Falkenbergs FF 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Falkenbergs FF win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.